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  1. Prognosemärkte
  2. Politik
  3. What will be included in the Iran-US peace deal?
Manifold Markets

What will be included in the Iran-US peace deal?

PolitikKIGeopolitik6Mon
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsKein KYC
Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Manifold Markets
Opening of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz without tolls. 95.3%
Führend unter 10 Optionen
Prognostiker

15

Fragetyp

multiple choice

Methodik

Play-money forecasting platform

Quellentyp

Prognose

Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 8 Stunden

Veraltet
8. Apr. 26, 0:561. Jan. 27, 1:40

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit

Gewähltes Ergebnis

Opening of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz without tolls.95%

Regeln

Resolution criteria

Manifold Markets
  • This market will resolve based on the official outcome of the current diplomatic negotiations between the United States and Iran regarding a long-term peace agreement, during or after the two-week ceasefire period initiated on April 7, 2026.
  • If no peace deal is reached by the end of 2026, the options on what will be included resolve NO.
  • As of April 8, 2026, the United States and Iran have entered a two-week ceasefire mediated by Pakistan.
  • This pause in military hostilities follows weeks of escalating tensions, during which President Donald Trump issued multiple threats to target Iranian critical infrastructure—specifically bridges and power plants—unless Iran agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and enter into a long-term peace agreement.
  • President Trump has characterized the current 10-point proposal from Iran as a "workable basis" for negotiation and has stated that both the U.S. and Iran are "very far along" in drafting a definitive agreement.

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Regeln

Resolution criteria

Manifold Markets
  • This market will resolve based on the official outcome of the current diplomatic negotiations between the United States and Iran regarding a long-term peace agreement, during or after the two-week ceasefire period initiated on April 7, 2026.
  • If no peace deal is reached by the end of 2026, the options on what will be included resolve NO.
  • As of April 8, 2026, the United States and Iran have entered a two-week ceasefire mediated by Pakistan.
  • This pause in military hostilities follows weeks of escalating tensions, during which President Donald Trump issued multiple threats to target Iranian critical infrastructure—specifically bridges and power plants—unless Iran agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and enter into a long-term peace agreement.
  • President Trump has characterized the current 10-point proposal from Iran as a "workable basis" for negotiation and has stated that both the U.S. and Iran are "very far along" in drafting a definitive agreement.