U.S. gov/any American placed on trial in international court for violation of international law relating to war in Iran?
GeopolitikOne-OffGesundheit & MedizinNaher OstenKriminalität & Justiz1J
Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 64.6%
Prognostiker
4
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 4 Stunden
Veraltet27. Mai 26, 16:31 UTC1. Jan. 28, 17:00 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will "International Law Cannot Prevent Extinction E..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill the International Court of Justice (ICJ) determine that Israel committed genocide in Gaza?
Manifold MarketsWill an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?
PolymarketWill Putin stand trial in the International Criminal Court?
Manifold MarketsWar in Iran goes into Berserk mode before end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsNetanyahu convicted in corruption trial?
PolymarketRegeln
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, on or before December 31, 2027 (11:59 PM UTC), either the United States government or any U.S. citizen is formally placed on trial before a recognized international court for violations of international law related to the military conflict in Iran that escalated in 2026.
- If no such trial begins by this date, the market will resolve to NO.
- Definitions:
- International Court: This is strictly limited to the International Court of Justice (ICJ), the International Criminal Court (ICC), or a United Nations-mandated ad-hoc international criminal tribunal.
- Bilateral arbitral bodies (such as the Iran-United States Claims Tribunal) and domestic national courts do not qualify.