Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose2027 35.9%Führend unter 6 Optionen
Prognostiker
17
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
+4.4 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 23 Minuten
12. Sept. 25, 21:00 UTC31. Dez. 30, 23:59 UTC
Trends
0.5%
Makro-Sensible Assets
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Regeln
This market asks when the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) will determine the next US recession began.
- The NBER is the official arbiter of US business cycles and typically announces recession start dates months after they actually begin.
- This market will resolve to the option that corresponds to when the NBER declares the recession started, not when they make the announcement.
- Resolution will be based on official NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee announcements: https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating
Offene Märkte
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 89,9 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 1,7 Mio. €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 541.193 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 30.703 €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 334.228 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 12.782,3 €
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 10.726,9 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 10.726,9 €
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 612.533,9 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 6886,5 €
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No95%
- Yes+1.0pt5%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 2,9 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 5285,2 €
- Recession in 2027?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
Zugehörige Kryptos
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für In what year will the next US recession begin??
- Manifold Markets bewertet 2027 mit 36% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird In what year will the next US recession begin? entschieden?
- In what year will the next US recession begin? soll am 31. Dezember 2030 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird In what year will the next US recession begin? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: This market asks when the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) will determine the next US recession began.