KalshiVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlich2% GebührVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Nein 76%
Marktqualitat
84 / 100
Hohe Qualität24h-Volumen
9528,4 €
Liquidität
161.947,9 €
Hohe LiquiditätGeld / Brief
23.0% / 24.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Enger SpreadMarktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 5 Minuten
24. Apr. 26, 19:15 UTC31. Jan. 28, 13:25 UTC
Trends
Makro-Sensible Assets
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Recession this year?
KalshiUS recession by end of 2027?
PolymarketWhich countries will have a recession before 2027?
KalshiWill the US experience a recession during 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Canada's economy enter a recession by the end of Q4 2027?
ForecastExWill the Eurozone enter a recession before the end of Q4 2027?
ForecastExRegeln
If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in Q4 2026 through Q4 2027, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.
Abwicklung über:Bureau of Economic Analysis
- For the avoidance of doubt, qualifying consecutive quarters may include Q4 2026 and Q1 2027.
- GDP growth refers to the quarter-over-quarter annualized percent change in real GDP as reported in the Advance Estimate for each quarter.
- The market will close at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or 8:25 AM ET on the morning of the expected release of the Advance Estimate of 2027 Q4 GDP.
- The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or the first 10:00 AM ET after the release of the Advance Estimate of 2027 Q4 GDP.
Offene Märkte
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase+0.1pt1%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 91 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 1,7 Mio. €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 569.721,2 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 47.363,9 €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 359.180,6 €
- 24h-Volumen
KALSHIUnited Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.5% of GDP-2.0pt94%
- Above -5.0% of GDP-6.0pt90%
- Above -4.5% of GDP80%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 16.442,1 €
KALSHIGermany’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.0% of GDP-1.0pt96%
- Above -4.5% of GDP-8.0pt86%
- Above -4.0% of GDP+1.0pt51%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+5.0pt86%
- Above 0.2%36%
+8 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 18.267,6 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 7302,2 €
- US government budget balance in 2026
- Japan’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- US recession by end of 2026?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Recession this year?
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
Zugehörige Kryptos
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Recession in 2027??
- Kalshi bewertet No mit 76% (Stand: 9. September 2026).
- Wann wird Recession in 2027? entschieden?
- Recession in 2027? soll am 31. Januar 2028 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Recession in 2027? abgerechnet?
- Kalshi rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in Q4 2026 through Q4 2027, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.