PolymarketVerfügbarkeit prüfenKein KYC2% GebührAktuelle implizite WahrscheinlichkeitJa 20%+0.0%
Marktqualitat
80 / 100
Hohe Qualität24h-Volumen
3181,9 €
Liquidität
24.528,8 €
Hohe LiquiditätGeld / Brief
19.0% / 20.0%
Spread
5.3%
Mittlerer Spread7d-Änderung
+1.0%
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 3 Minuten
29. Sept. 25, 22:2931. Jan. 27, 0:00
Trends
Gewähltes Ergebnis
Yes20%
Auch verfügbar auf Limitless
US recession by end of 2026?
7Mon
19.5%
80.5%
28 • Niedrige QualitätSpread unbekanntNiedrige LiquiditätDünner Markt
Gesamtvolumen2852,5 €
24h-Volumen0 €
LIMITLESSRegeln
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
- The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
- The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Note that advance estimates will be considered.
- For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes".
Wahrscheinlichkeiten können aufgrund unterschiedlicher Marktstrukturen, Gebühren und Teilnehmerpools abweichen.
Makro-Sensible Assets
Verwandte Märkte
How high will US unemployment go in 2026?
792,6 €5.0%: 17%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Will Mexico's real GDP grow by at least 1.6% in 2026?
259,9 €Ja: 27.8%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSJune Unemployment Rate
134,5 €4.2%: 31%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
US real GDP growth in 2030?
134,1 €2.6% to 3.0%: 11%
KALSHI
KALSHI
Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year?
96,2 €Ja: 8%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Regeln
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
- The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
- The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Note that advance estimates will be considered.
- For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes".