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  1. Prognosemärkte
  2. Wirtschaft
  3. US recession by end of 2026?
US recession by end of 2026?

US recession by end of 2026?

2.0% (24h)WirtschaftOne-Off7Mon
PolymarketPolymarketVerfügbarkeit prüfenKein KYC2% Gebühr
Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Ja
Ja 20%+0.0%
Marktqualitat

80 / 100

Hohe Qualität
24h-Volumen

3181,9 €

Liquidität

24.528,8 €

Hohe Liquidität
Geld / Brief

19.0% / 20.0%

Spread

5.3%

Mittlerer Spread
7d-Änderung

+1.0%

Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 3 Minuten

29. Sept. 25, 22:2931. Jan. 27, 0:00

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit

Gewähltes Ergebnis

Yes20%

LimitlessAuch verfügbar auf Limitless

US recession by end of 2026?

US recession by end of 2026?

7Mon
Ja
Ja
19.5%
Nein
Nein
80.5%
28 • Niedrige QualitätSpread unbekanntNiedrige LiquiditätDünner Markt
Gesamtvolumen2852,5 €
24h-Volumen0 €
LimitlessLIMITLESS

Regeln

This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:

Polymarket
  • The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
  • The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • Note that advance estimates will be considered.
  • For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes".

Wahrscheinlichkeiten können aufgrund unterschiedlicher Marktstrukturen, Gebühren und Teilnehmerpools abweichen.

Makro-Sensible Assets

BitcoinBTC$62,655.03+2.33%EthereumETH$1,650.38+1.55%SolanaSOL$65.14+1.56%

Verwandte Märkte

How high will US unemployment go in 2026?

How high will US unemployment go in 2026?

792,6 €
5.0%: 17%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Manifold Markets

Will Mexico's real GDP grow by at least 1.6% in 2026?

259,9 €
Ja: 27.8%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
June Unemployment Rate

June Unemployment Rate

134,5 €
4.2%: 31%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
US real GDP growth in 2030?

US real GDP growth in 2030?

134,1 €
2.6% to 3.0%: 11%KalshiKALSHI
Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year?

Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year?

96,2 €
Ja: 8%PolymarketPOLYMARKET

In diesen Themen aktiv

DogecoinDOGE$0.085+1.70%XRPXRP$1.12+0.21%BNBBNB$595.20+1.63%CardanoADA$0.1659+2.86%HyperliquidHYPE$54.86-0.88%LitecoinLTC$42.71+0.65%

Regeln

This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:

Polymarket
  • The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
  • The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • Note that advance estimates will be considered.
  • For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes".