LimitlessVerfügbarkeit prüfenKein KYCEingeschränkte verifizierte DatenAktuelle implizite WahrscheinlichkeitJa 10.9%
Marktqualitat
28 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
0 €
Liquidität
0 €
Niedrige LiquiditätGeld / Brief
-
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 13 Minuten
7. Jan. 26, 16:441. Feb. 27, 4:59
Trends
Nur virtuelles Guthaben – kein echtes GeldKeine Finanzberatung
Gewähltes Ergebnis
Yes11%
Plattformen vergleichen· No
Sortiert nach Marktqualität, dann Liquidität und 24-h-Volumen| Plattform | Qualität | Wahrscheinlichkeit | vs. Referenz | 24h Vol | Liq | Aktualität | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBeste insgesamt79% Übereinstimmung · auto | Mittel | 88% | +76pt | 467,7 € | 17.085,3 € | vor 13 Minuten | Öffnen → |
| LimitlessDiese Seite | Niedrig | 89% | +77pt | 0 € | 0 € | vor 13 Minuten | |
 Manifold Markets82% Übereinstimmung · geprüft | — | 88% | +76pt | — | — | vorgestern | Öffnen → |
Auch verfügbar auf Manifold Markets
US recession in 2026?
5Mon
88.4%
11.6%
Community-Prognose134 PrognostikerTyp: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSAuch verfügbar auf Polymarket
US recession by end of 2026?
6Mon
88%
12%
52 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadMittlere Liquidität
Gesamtvolumen1,5 Mio. €
24h-Volumen467,7 €
POLYMARKETRegeln
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
- The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
- The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered.
- For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes".
- If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Wahrscheinlichkeiten können aufgrund unterschiedlicher Marktstrukturen, Gebühren und Teilnehmerpools abweichen.
Volumentrend
$0.006. Juli21T Daten26. Juli
Makro-Sensible Assets
Verwandte Märkte
Inflation in July 2026 (CPI YoY)
10.569,7 €Above 3.4%: 31%
KALSHI
KALSHI
UK Annual GDP Growth 2026
3863,5 €0-1%: 56%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Recession this year?
3216,7 €Ja: 11%KALSHI
KALSHI
2026: Trump's dream year?
1758,6 €Ja: 5%KALSHI
KALSHI
US economic state at the end of 2026?
1662,7 €Soft Landing: 59%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET[Metaculus] Will the US set a new annual GDP growth rate record high before 2030?
395,6 €Ja: 16.3%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSIn diesen Themen aktiv
Verwandte Nachrichten
Regeln
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
- The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
- The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered.
- For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes".
- If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product