LimitlessVerfügbarkeit prüfenKein KYCAktuelle implizite WahrscheinlichkeitJa 19.5%
Marktqualitat
28 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
0 €
Liquidität
0 €
Niedrige LiquiditätGeld / Brief
-
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 1 Minute
7. Jan. 26, 16:441. Feb. 27, 4:59
Trends
Gewähltes Ergebnis
Yes20%
Auch verfügbar auf Polymarket
US recession by end of 2026?
2.0%7Mon
+0.0%20%
-0.0%81%
80 • Hohe QualitätMittlerer SpreadHohe Liquidität
Gesamtvolumen1,3 Mio. €
24h-Volumen3181,7 €
POLYMARKETRegeln
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
- The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
- The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered.
- For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes".
- If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Wahrscheinlichkeiten können aufgrund unterschiedlicher Marktstrukturen, Gebühren und Teilnehmerpools abweichen.
Makro-Sensible Assets
Verwandte Märkte
How high will US unemployment go in 2026?
792,5 €5.0%: 17%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Will Mexico's real GDP grow by at least 1.6% in 2026?
259,8 €Ja: 27.8%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSJune Unemployment Rate
134,5 €4.3%: 32%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
US real GDP growth in 2030?
134,1 €2.6% to 3.0%: 11%
KALSHI
KALSHIWill Nigeria have a larger GDP than South Africa in 2026?
80,4 €Ja: 47.8%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Regeln
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
- The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
- The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered.
- For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes".
- If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product