LimitlessVerfügbarkeit prüfenKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGrob kalibriertAktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Nein 95%
Marktqualitat
30 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
8,1 €
Liquidität
—
Liquidität unbekanntMarktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 11 Minuten
7. Jan. 26, 16:44 UTC1. Feb. 27, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Makro-Sensible Assets
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Regeln
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
- The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
- The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered.
- For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes".
- If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Vergleich von Prognosequellen
2 Handelsplätze bepreisen diesen Markt derzeit. Die liquiditätsgewichtete Referenzwahrscheinlichkeit von CoinRithm für CoinRithm-Referenz liegt bei 8%. Die Kurse liegen rund 3 Prozentpunkte auseinander.
CoinRithm-Referenz 8% · 2 Plattformen · 3 Pkt. Venue-Spanne
Offene Märkte
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase+0.1pt1%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 91 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 1,7 Mio. €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 569.721,2 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 47.363,9 €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 359.180,6 €
- 24h-Volumen
KALSHIUnited Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.5% of GDP-2.0pt94%
- Above -5.0% of GDP-6.0pt90%
- Above -4.5% of GDP80%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 16.442,1 €
KALSHIGermany’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.0% of GDP-1.0pt96%
- Above -4.5% of GDP-8.0pt86%
- Above -4.0% of GDP+1.0pt51%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No78%
- Yes-3.0pt22%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 314.673,8 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 9494 €
- CPI core in August
- US government budget balance in 2026
- Japan’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- US recession by end of 2026?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Recession this year?
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
Zugehörige Kryptos
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für US recession by end of 2026??
- Limitless bewertet No mit 95% (Stand: 9. September 2026).
- Wann wird US recession by end of 2026? entschieden?
- US recession by end of 2026? soll am 1. Februar 2027 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird US recession by end of 2026? abgerechnet?
- Limitless rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: <p>This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:</p><ol><li>The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).</li><li>The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.</li></ol><p>Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".</p><p>Note that advance estimates will be considered.
- Wo wird US recession by end of 2026? außerdem gelistet?
- Dieselbe Frage wird auch auf Manifold Markets, Futuur, Polymarket gelistet.