Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
Before Q1 2030 70%Führend unter 10 Optionen
Prognostiker
45
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 9 Minuten
8. Aug. 25, 19:30 UTC1. Jan. 31, 19:06 UTC
Trends
Makro-Sensible Assets
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Regeln
Resolution Criteria
- A “US recession” is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Advance Estimate data.
- The date used for resolution is the first quarter in which the first of the two consecutive negative quarters occurred.
- Only the BEA’s Advance Estimate is used; later revisions are ignored.
- Any two consecutive negative values, even -0.1%, qualify as a recession for the purpose of this poll.
- Interpretation of Options
Offene Märkte
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 89,9 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 1,7 Mio. €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 541.193 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 30.703 €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 334.228 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 12.782,3 €
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 10.726,9 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 10.726,9 €
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 612.533,9 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 6886,5 €
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No95%
- Yes+1.0pt5%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 2,9 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 5285,2 €
- Recession in 2027?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
Zugehörige Kryptos
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für When will the next US recession be??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Before Q1 2030 mit 70% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird When will the next US recession be? entschieden?
- When will the next US recession be? soll am 1. Januar 2031 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird When will the next US recession be? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolution Criteria