KalshiVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlich2% GebührVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Nein 96%
Marktqualitat
68 / 100
Mittlere Qualität24h-Volumen
89,1 €
Liquidität
80.305,8 €
Hohe LiquiditätGeld / Brief
4.2% / 6.7%
Spread
2.5 pt
Mittlerer SpreadMarktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 5 Minuten
17. Dez. 25, 15:00 UTC31. Dez. 27, 15:00 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
US government budget balance in 2026
KalshiGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
Kalshi2026: Trump's dream year?
KalshiWill an American presidential candidate in 2028 run on a platform that includes nationalizing or pausing AGI?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a US federal shutdown in November 2026?
Manifold Markets2026 a nightmare year for Trump?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
If ALL of the following occur: Trump's VoteHub approval rating drops below 35% in 2026 AND Democrats win control of the House of Representatives after the midterms AND the U.S. enters a recession between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive) AND the U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) is at least 5% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Abwicklung über:VoteHubU.S. House of RepresentativesBureau of Economic AnalysisBureau of Labor StatisticsBureau of Labor Statistics
- This is a combination market requiring **ALL** specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out.
- If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset:
- - "Trump's VoteHub approval rating drops below 35%" uses POLLINGAPPROVALINPERIOD - "Will Democrats win control of the House of Representatives?" uses CONTROL - "Will the U.S. enter a recession?" uses NBERRECSS - "Will the U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) be at least 5%?" uses ECONSTAT
- For economic data releases, resolution uses the first officially released value (not preliminary or revised estimates unless specified).
Offene Märkte
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase+0.1pt1%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 91 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 1,7 Mio. €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 569.721,2 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 47.363,9 €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 359.180,6 €
- 24h-Volumen
KALSHIUnited Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.5% of GDP-2.0pt94%
- Above -5.0% of GDP-6.0pt90%
- Above -4.5% of GDP80%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 16.442,1 €
KALSHIGermany’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.0% of GDP-1.0pt96%
- Above -4.5% of GDP-8.0pt86%
- Above -4.0% of GDP+1.0pt51%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No78%
- Yes-3.0pt22%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 314.673,8 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 9494 €
- CPI core in August
- US government budget balance in 2026
- Japan’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- US recession by end of 2026?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Recession this year?
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für 2026: Trump's bad year??
- Kalshi bewertet No mit 96% (Stand: 9. September 2026).
- Wann wird 2026: Trump's bad year? entschieden?
- 2026: Trump's bad year? soll am 31. Dezember 2027 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird 2026: Trump's bad year? abgerechnet?
- Kalshi rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: If ALL of the following occur: Trump's VoteHub approval rating drops below 35% in 2026 AND Democrats win control of the House of Representatives after the midterms AND the U.S. enters a recession between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive) AND the U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) is at least 5% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.