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  1. Prognosemärkte
  2. Wirtschaft
  3. 2026: Trump's bad year?
2026: Trump's bad year?

2026: Trump's bad year?

1.0% (24h)WirtschaftOne-OffUS Politics1J
KalshiKalshiVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlich2% Gebühr
Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Ja
Ja 14%-1.0%
Marktqualitat

28 / 100

Niedrige Qualität
24h-Volumen

8,7 €

Liquidität

642,4 €

Niedrige Liquidität
Geld / Brief

13.0% / 17.0%

Spread

30.8%

Breiter Spread
Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 8 Minuten

17. Dez. 25, 15:0031. Dez. 27, 15:00

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit

Gewähltes Ergebnis

Yes14%

Regeln

If ALL of the following occur: Trump's VoteHub approval rating drops below 35% in 2026 AND Democrats win control of the House of Representatives after the midterms AND the U.S. enters a recession between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive) AND the U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) is at least 5% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • This is a combination market requiring **ALL** specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out.
  • If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No.
  • Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset:
  • - "Trump's VoteHub approval rating drops below 35%" uses POLLINGAPPROVALINPERIOD - "Will Democrats win control of the House of Representatives?" uses CONTROL - "Will the U.S. enter a recession?" uses NBERRECSS - "Will the U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) be at least 5%?" uses ECONSTAT
  • For economic data releases, resolution uses the first officially released value (not preliminary or revised estimates unless specified).

Verwandte Märkte

Social Security Insolvent by...?

Social Security Insolvent by...?

87 €
2028: 31%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
2026: Trump's dream year?

2026: Trump's dream year?

5,1 €
Ja: 9%KalshiKALSHI
Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?

Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?

2,5 €
Ja: 37%KalshiKALSHI
Will there be a Trump economic boom?

Will there be a Trump economic boom?

1,9 €
Ja: 51%KalshiKALSHI
Japan recession in 2026?

Japan recession in 2026?

0 €
Ja: 26%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Japan GDP growth in Q2 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?

Japan GDP growth in Q2 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?

5,1 €
<-2.4%: 47%PolymarketPOLYMARKET

In diesen Themen aktiv

BitcoinBTC$62,457.50+1.52%EthereumETH$1,647.96+1.11%SolanaSOL$64.94+0.67%DogecoinDOGE$0.0845+0.66%XRPXRP$1.11-0.53%BNBBNB$593.87+1.05%

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Regeln

If ALL of the following occur: Trump's VoteHub approval rating drops below 35% in 2026 AND Democrats win control of the House of Representatives after the midterms AND the U.S. enters a recession between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive) AND the U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) is at least 5% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • This is a combination market requiring **ALL** specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out.
  • If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No.
  • Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset:
  • - "Trump's VoteHub approval rating drops below 35%" uses POLLINGAPPROVALINPERIOD - "Will Democrats win control of the House of Representatives?" uses CONTROL - "Will the U.S. enter a recession?" uses NBERRECSS - "Will the U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) be at least 5%?" uses ECONSTAT
  • For economic data releases, resolution uses the first officially released value (not preliminary or revised estimates unless specified).