KalshiVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlich2% GebührVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGrob kalibriertAktuelle implizite WahrscheinlichkeitJa 48%-1.0%
Marktqualitat
91 / 100
Hohe Qualität24h-Volumen
592,2 €
Liquidität
25.605,6 €
Hohe LiquiditätGeld / Brief
47.0% / 48.0%
Spread
2.1%
Enger SpreadMarktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 14 Minuten
9. Juni 26, 20:301. Okt. 26, 14:00
Trends
Nur virtuelles Guthaben – kein echtes GeldKeine Finanzberatung
Gewähltes Ergebnis
Yes48%
Plattformen vergleichen· No
Sortiert nach Marktqualität, dann Liquidität und 24-h-Volumen| Plattform | Qualität | Wahrscheinlichkeit | vs. Referenz | 24h Vol | Liq | Aktualität | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiDiese SeiteBeste insgesamt | Hoch | 52% | +4pt | 592,2 € | 25.605,6 € | vor 14 Minuten | |
 Polymarket92% Übereinstimmung · auto | Niedrig | 53% | +5pt | 0 € | 3018,2 € | vor 14 Minuten | Öffnen → |
Auch verfügbar auf Polymarket
Government shutdown by October 1?
5.5%2Mon
-0.1%53%
+0.1%47%
40 • Niedrige QualitätBreiter SpreadMittlere LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit
Gesamtvolumen819,7 €
24h-Volumen0 €
POLYMARKETRegeln
If the United States federal government is at least partially shut down due to a lapse of appropriations at 10:00 AM ET on Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- A shutdown is defined as the government's orderly suspension of agency work that is not legally excepted, typically accompanied by furloughing the employees who perform that work, when funding is unavailable.
- Examples that would resolve the market to Yes:
- OMB releases a formal directive that orders heads of the affected agencies to "execute plans for an orderly shutdown," which is in effect as of 10:00 AM ET on Oct 1, 2026 OPM posts a current operating status that indicates that "due to a partial lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency"
- Examples that would NOT resolve the market to Yes:
- A technical lapse in appropriations occurs, but OMB directs agencies to continue standard operations Government closures or operating status changes resulting from Federal holidays, inclement weather, or other emergencies, unless such closures coincide with a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations
Wahrscheinlichkeiten können aufgrund unterschiedlicher Marktstrukturen, Gebühren und Teilnehmerpools abweichen.
Volumentrend
$6742. Juli25T Daten26. Juli
Verwandte Märkte
If Donald Trump is elected president in the 2024 election, what will the annualised GDP growth rate be over his term?
29,1 €0-1%: 6.1%
MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?
3,7 €Shutdown & Democratic: 86%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
2026: Trump's dream year?
1758,6 €Ja: 5%KALSHI
KALSHI
Will Trump bring back manufacturing?
25,5 €Ja: 17%KALSHI
KALSHI
Will there be a Trump economic boom?
20,6 €Ja: 30%KALSHI
KALSHI
US defaults on debt by 2027?
0 €Ja: 4%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETIn diesen Themen aktiv
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If the United States federal government is at least partially shut down due to a lapse of appropriations at 10:00 AM ET on Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- A shutdown is defined as the government's orderly suspension of agency work that is not legally excepted, typically accompanied by furloughing the employees who perform that work, when funding is unavailable.
- Examples that would resolve the market to Yes:
- OMB releases a formal directive that orders heads of the affected agencies to "execute plans for an orderly shutdown," which is in effect as of 10:00 AM ET on Oct 1, 2026 OPM posts a current operating status that indicates that "due to a partial lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency"
- Examples that would NOT resolve the market to Yes:
- A technical lapse in appropriations occurs, but OMB directs agencies to continue standard operations Government closures or operating status changes resulting from Federal holidays, inclement weather, or other emergencies, unless such closures coincide with a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations