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  1. Prognosemärkte
  2. Politik
  3. Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?

Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?

PolitikOne-OffWirtschaftUS PoliticsWahl3Mon
KalshiKalshiVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlich2% Gebühr
Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Ja
Ja 37%
Marktqualitat

49 / 100

Niedrige Qualität
24h-Volumen

2,5 €

Liquidität

3,6 €

Niedrige Liquidität
Geld / Brief

36.0% / 37.0%

Spread

2.8%

Enger Spread
Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 3 Minuten

9. Juni 26, 20:301. Okt. 26, 14:00

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit

Gewähltes Ergebnis

Yes37%

Regeln

If the United States federal government is at least partially shut down due to a lapse of appropriations at 10:00 AM ET on Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • A shutdown is defined as the government's orderly suspension of agency work that is not legally excepted, typically accompanied by furloughing the employees who perform that work, when funding is unavailable.
  • Examples that would resolve the market to Yes:
  • OMB releases a formal directive that orders heads of the affected agencies to "execute plans for an orderly shutdown," which is in effect as of 10:00 AM ET on Oct 1, 2026 OPM posts a current operating status that indicates that "due to a partial lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency"
  • Examples that would NOT resolve the market to Yes:
  • A technical lapse in appropriations occurs, but OMB directs agencies to continue standard operations Government closures or operating status changes resulting from Federal holidays, inclement weather, or other emergencies, unless such closures coincide with a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations

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In diesen Themen aktiv

BitcoinBTC$62,682.54+2.38%EthereumETH$1,651.16+1.73%SolanaSOL$65.16+1.80%DogecoinDOGE$0.0851+1.95%XRPXRP$1.12+0.49%BNBBNB$595.34+1.77%

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Regeln

If the United States federal government is at least partially shut down due to a lapse of appropriations at 10:00 AM ET on Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • A shutdown is defined as the government's orderly suspension of agency work that is not legally excepted, typically accompanied by furloughing the employees who perform that work, when funding is unavailable.
  • Examples that would resolve the market to Yes:
  • OMB releases a formal directive that orders heads of the affected agencies to "execute plans for an orderly shutdown," which is in effect as of 10:00 AM ET on Oct 1, 2026 OPM posts a current operating status that indicates that "due to a partial lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency"
  • Examples that would NOT resolve the market to Yes:
  • A technical lapse in appropriations occurs, but OMB directs agencies to continue standard operations Government closures or operating status changes resulting from Federal holidays, inclement weather, or other emergencies, unless such closures coincide with a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations