PolymarketVerfügbarkeit prüfenKein KYC2% GebührVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Nein 99%-0.1pt
Marktqualitat
≤49 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
—
Liquidität
20.072,9 €
Mittlere LiquiditätGeld / Brief
0.7% / 1.0%
Spread
0.3 pt
Enger SpreadKommentare
0
7d-Änderung
-1.3 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 9 Minuten
10. Juni 26, 16:29 UTC2. Okt. 26, 03:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
US government shutdown on October 1st 2026?
Manifold MarketsAnother US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?
PolymarketOn which dates will the US government be shutdown?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a government shutdown before January 2027?
Manifold MarketsUnited Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
KalshiGermany’s government budget balance in 2026
KalshiRegeln
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government enters a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A U.S. federal government shutdown is considered to have gone into effect when there is a lapse in appropriations that results in federal government agencies suspending non-excepted operations, typically including the furlough of non-excepted federal employees.
- A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress fails to enact, or the President fails to sign into law, legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
- A lapse in appropriations where no federal agencies cease or suspend non-excepted operations will not qualify as a shutdown.
- Partial shutdowns qualify.
Vergleich von Prognosequellen
Offene Märkte
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+10.0pt64%
- No change-10.0pt35%
- 50+ bps increase+0.4pt1%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 96,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 5,2 Mio. €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.7%99%
+23 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 656.198,7 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 85.076,7 €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above -0.2%+3.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 385.978,2 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 25.595,7 €
KALSHIUnited Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.5% of GDP-2.0pt92%
- Above -5.0% of GDP-10.0pt80%
- Above -4.5% of GDP-20.0pt60%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+1.0pt87%
- Above 0.2%-6.0pt30%
+8 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 29.365,2 €
KALSHIState of the economy at the end of 2026
- Soft landing-5.7pt50.5%
- Overheating+11.8pt44.8%
- Stagflation-2.6pt2.9%
+1 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- Core inflation in August 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
- Canada GDP: July 2026 (MoM)
- US government budget balance in 2026
- US real GDP growth in 2034?
- China unemployment rate in August
- GDP growth in 2026
- Recession this year?
- Japan’s government budget balance in 2026
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Government shutdown by October 1??
- Polymarket bewertet No mit 99% (Stand: 10. September 2026).
- Wann wird Government shutdown by October 1? entschieden?
- Government shutdown by October 1? soll am 2. Oktober 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Government shutdown by October 1? abgerechnet?
- Polymarket rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government enters a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Wo wird Government shutdown by October 1? außerdem gelistet?
- Dieselbe Frage wird auch auf Manifold Markets, Kalshi gelistet.