PolymarketVerfügbarkeit prüfenKein KYC2% GebührVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle implizite WahrscheinlichkeitJa 47%+0.1%
Marktqualitat
40 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
0 €
Liquidität
3019,9 €
Mittlere LiquiditätGeld / Brief
40.0% / 54.0%
Spread
35.0%
Breiter Spread7d-Änderung
-0.5%
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 13 Minuten
10. Juni 26, 16:292. Okt. 26, 3:59
Trends
Nur virtuelles Guthaben – kein echtes GeldKeine Finanzberatung
Gewähltes Ergebnis
Yes47%
Plattformen vergleichen· No
Sortiert nach Marktqualität, dann Liquidität und 24-h-Volumen| Plattform | Qualität | Wahrscheinlichkeit | vs. Referenz | 24h Vol | Liq | Aktualität | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiBeste insgesamt92% Übereinstimmung · auto | Hoch | 52% | +4pt | 592,2 € | 25.605,1 € | vor 13 Minuten | Öffnen → |
| PolymarketDiese Seite | Niedrig | 53% | +5pt | 0 € | 3019,9 € | vor 13 Minuten |
Auch verfügbar auf Kalshi
Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
1.0%2Mon
52%
-1.0%48%
91 • Hohe QualitätEnger SpreadHohe LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit
Gesamtvolumen45.854,6 €
24h-Volumen592,2 €
KALSHIRegeln
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government enters a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A U.S. federal government shutdown is considered to have gone into effect when there is a lapse in appropriations that results in federal government agencies suspending non-excepted operations, typically including the furlough of non-excepted federal employees.
- A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress fails to enact, or the President fails to sign into law, legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
- A lapse in appropriations where no federal agencies cease or suspend non-excepted operations will not qualify as a shutdown.
- Partial shutdowns qualify.
Wahrscheinlichkeiten können aufgrund unterschiedlicher Marktstrukturen, Gebühren und Teilnehmerpools abweichen.
Volumentrend
$69. Juli10T Daten24. Juli
Verwandte Märkte
If Donald Trump is elected president in the 2024 election, what will the annualised GDP growth rate be over his term?
29,1 €0-1%: 6.1%
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2026: Trump's dream year?
1758,5 €Ja: 5%KALSHI
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Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?
3,7 €Shutdown & Democratic: 86%POLYMARKET
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Inflation in July 2026 (CPI YoY)
10.569,5 €Above 3.4%: 31%KALSHI
KALSHI
UK Annual GDP Growth 2026
3863,4 €0-1%: 56%POLYMARKET
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Recession this year?
3245,2 €Ja: 10%KALSHI
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government enters a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A U.S. federal government shutdown is considered to have gone into effect when there is a lapse in appropriations that results in federal government agencies suspending non-excepted operations, typically including the furlough of non-excepted federal employees.
- A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress fails to enact, or the President fails to sign into law, legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
- A lapse in appropriations where no federal agencies cease or suspend non-excepted operations will not qualify as a shutdown.
- Partial shutdowns qualify.