Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 96.1%
Prognostiker
41
Fragetyp
binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 39 Minuten
13. Feb. 26, 19:20 UTC30. Sept. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Government shutdown by October 1?
PolymarketAnother US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?
PolymarketOn which dates will the US government be shutdown?
Manifold MarketsUS Average Gas Price Is $4.000 or more on October 1st 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS announces another drawdown of Strategic Petroleum Reserve before October 1st
Manifold MarketsUS government budget balance in 2026
KalshiRegeln
Resolves YES iff the US Office of Personnel Management announces a federal government shutdown (including a partial shutdown) due to a lapse in appropriations on the operating status page by 11:59pm ET on October 1st, 2026.
- (stole criteria from @brod's market)
- NOTE: This market is asking about the gov shutdown for government funding due to expire on Sep 31, 2026.
- The DHS partial shutdown in Feb 2026 is not relevant for this market.
Vergleich von Prognosequellen
Offene Märkte
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 89,9 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 1,7 Mio. €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 541.193 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 30.703 €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 334.228 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 12.782,3 €
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 10.726,9 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 10.726,9 €
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 612.533,9 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 6886,5 €
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No95%
- Yes+1.0pt5%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 2,9 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 5285,2 €
- Recession in 2027?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für US government shutdown on October 1st 2026??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 96% (Stand: 9. September 2026).
- Wann wird US government shutdown on October 1st 2026? entschieden?
- US government shutdown on October 1st 2026? soll am 30. September 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird US government shutdown on October 1st 2026? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolves YES iff the US Office of Personnel Management announces a federal government shutdown (including a partial shutdown) due to a lapse in appropriations on the operating status page by 11:59pm ET on October 1st, 2026.
- Wo wird US government shutdown on October 1st 2026? außerdem gelistet?
- Dieselbe Frage wird auch auf Polymarket, Kalshi gelistet.