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  1. Prognosemärkte
  2. Inflation
  3. Will the Citrini scenario happen?
Will the Citrini scenario happen?

Will the Citrini scenario happen?

InflationOne-OffWirtschaftEquities2J
KalshiKalshiVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlich2% Gebühr
Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Ja
Ja 29%
Marktqualitat

44 / 100

Niedrige Qualität
24h-Volumen

1,4 €

Liquidität

1690,1 €

Niedrige Liquidität
Geld / Brief

29.0% / 30.0%

Spread

3.5%

Mittlerer Spread
Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 4 Minuten

25. Feb. 26, 15:001. Juli 28, 14:00

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit

Gewähltes Ergebnis

Yes29%

Regeln

If at least 3 of: unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS) S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50% CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release

Kalshi
  • occur in any release published after Issuance and before July 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Verwandte Märkte

Inflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)

Inflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)

8 €
Above 4.0%: 79%KalshiKALSHI
Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)

Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)

5,9 €
Above 4.9%: 42%KalshiKALSHI
Core inflation in July 2026 (Core CPI YoY)

Core inflation in July 2026 (Core CPI YoY)

5,3 €
Above 2.2%: 99%KalshiKALSHI
US economic state at the end of 2026?

US economic state at the end of 2026?

3 €
Overheating: 48%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
How high will inflation get in 2026?

How high will inflation get in 2026?

25.706,5 €
Above 4%: 100%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
June Inflation US - Annual

June Inflation US - Annual

664,6 €
4.1%: 23%PolymarketPOLYMARKET

In diesen Themen aktiv

BitcoinBTC$62,250.86+1.35%EthereumETH$1,641.16+0.69%SolanaSOL$64.82+0.32%DogecoinDOGE$0.084-0.20%XRPXRP$1.11-0.83%BNBBNB$591.59+0.43%

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Regeln

If at least 3 of: unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS) S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50% CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release

Kalshi
  • occur in any release published after Issuance and before July 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.