Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 83%
Prognostiker
18
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 11 Stunden
Veraltet14. März 26, 13:09 UTC30. Juni 28, 22:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Kalshi reduce its taker fees in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the s&p500 trade below 6,100 this year? (Kalshi)
Manifold MarketsWill Kalshi win its lawsuit against Nevada?
Manifold MarketsWhat will Dominos say during their next earnings call?
KalshiFed Decision in September?
PolymarketCPI in August
KalshiRegeln
Resolves identically to: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcitrini/will-the-citrini-scenario-materialize/kxcitrini-28jul01
- If at least 3 of:
- unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS);
- S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance;
- Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix;
- labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50%;
Vergleich von Prognosequellen
Offene Märkte
InflationPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt46%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 90,1 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 1,4 Mio. €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
+12 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 358.643,9 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 35.773 €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
+23 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 548.346,9 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 28.798 €
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+3.0pt54.2%
- September Meeting+2.0pt45.8%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHINYC median asking rent in December 2026
- Above $3,80095%
- Above $3,90081%
- Above $4,00044%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 79.764,2 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 7616,5 €
POLYMARKETCore CPI MoM - August 2026
- 0.2%-1.0pt51.9%
- 0.3%+4.5pt34.6%
- 0.1%-3.0pt9.6%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- CPI core in August
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- CPI in September
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- August Inflation US - Annual
- CPI-U index in August
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- August Inflation US - Monthly
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- How high will inflation get in 2026?
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will the Citrini scenario happen? [Kalshi]?
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 83% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will the Citrini scenario happen? [Kalshi] entschieden?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen? [Kalshi] soll am 30. Juni 2028 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will the Citrini scenario happen? [Kalshi] abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolves identically to: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcitrini/will-the-citrini-scenario-materialize/kxcitrini-28jul01
- Wo wird Will the Citrini scenario happen? [Kalshi] außerdem gelistet?
- Dieselbe Frage wird auch auf Kalshi gelistet.