Will the Citrini scenario happen? [Kalshi]
InflationOne-OffWirtschaftAktienWirtschaft & Unternehmen1JManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 80%
Prognostiker
18
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 46 Minuten
Verzogert14. März 26, 13:09 UTC30. Juni 28, 22:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will something horrible happen to Kalshi deposits by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the s&p500 trade below 6,100 this year? (Kalshi)
Manifold MarketsWould Freddie deBoer win his proposed bet with Scott Alexander?
Manifold MarketsWould Freddie deBoer win his proposed bet with Scott Alexander?
Manifold MarketsWill 2025 be referred to as the start of the second Great Depression?
Manifold MarketsWill the S&P 500 close above 7883.34 on December 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
Resolves identically to: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcitrini/will-the-citrini-scenario-materialize/kxcitrini-28jul01
- If at least 3 of:
- unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS);
- S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance;
- Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix;
- labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50%;
