Will 2025 be referred to as the start of the second Great Depression?
InflationOne-OffMakro & WirtschaftWirtschaftHandelspolitikAktienGeopolitik2MonManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätQuelldaten beeinträchtigt
Daten vom 26.10.2026, 03:24 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 95.7%
Prognostiker
32
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 41 Minuten
3. Apr. 25, 11:45 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Makro-Sensible Assets
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Zelensky start his second presidential term in Ukraine before 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a global depression in the 2020s?
Manifold MarketsWill the US have an economic depression before January 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia have gone through an economic depression by EOY 2045?
Manifold MarketsWill the S&P 500 close above 7883.34 on December 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsUs market crash in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
In the first Great Depression, the stock market fell, leading to an initial crisis, and then the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 severely curtailed global trade both by instituting tariffs on US goods and inviting retaliatory tariffs from other countries.
- Similarly, in 2025, the stock market crashed, and then worldwide tariffs were imposed.
- However, whereas the 1930 trade war only increased tariffs to 20%, the weighted average United States tariffs in 2025 already falls between 25% and 30% (depending on source), even before the cycle of retaliatory tariffs has begun.
- This market will resolve to YES if, at any time before January 1, 2027, it is the consensus of largely unbiased mainstream sources like The New York Times, CNN, ABC, or CBS that the economy is or was in a "depression" after January 1, 2025.
- Use of the word "recession" is insufficient for YES.
- Otherwise, the market will resolve to NO.
