Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätQuelldaten beeinträchtigt
Daten vom 25.10.2026, 19:26 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 87%
Prognostiker
21
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 6 Stunden
Veraltet13. Apr. 25, 18:20 UTC1. Jan. 31, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Russia have gone through an economic depression by EOY 2045?
Manifold MarketsUS economic state at the end of 2026?
PolymarketUS economic recession in 2026?
FutuurBy 2028, will economists attribute a visible break in US economic or productivity trends to AI?
Manifold MarketsConditional on a cyber incident causing $15B+ in US economic damage, what will be the primary target?
Manifold MarketsWill the economic gap between the USA and Western Europe be greater in 2030?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
Resolution Criteria:
- The market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during the specified period, the U.S. economy meets both of the following conditions:
- Duration and Depth of Economic Decline:
- The U.S. experiences a continuous period of economic downturn lasting at least 24 months, during which there is a cumulative decline in real GDP of 10% or more.
- Unemployment Rate:
- The national unemployment rate reaches 15% or higher for six consecutive months.
