Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 87.2%
Prognostiker
21
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 10 Stunden
Veraltet13. Apr. 25, 18:20 UTC1. Jan. 31, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
US economic state at the end of 2026?
PolymarketUS economic recession in 2026?
FutuurBy 2028, will economists attribute a visible break in US economic or productivity trends to AI?
Manifold MarketsWill the economic gap between the USA and Western Europe be greater in 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill China have an economic recession induced by overcapacity before EOY 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a Trump economic boom?
KalshiRegeln
Resolution Criteria:
- The market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during the specified period, the U.S. economy meets both of the following conditions:
- Duration and Depth of Economic Decline:
- The U.S. experiences a continuous period of economic downturn lasting at least 24 months, during which there is a cumulative decline in real GDP of 10% or more.
- Unemployment Rate:
- The national unemployment rate reaches 15% or higher for six consecutive months.
Offene Märkte
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 89,9 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 1,7 Mio. €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 541.193 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 30.703 €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 334.228 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 12.782,3 €
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 10.726,9 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 10.726,9 €
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 612.533,9 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 6886,5 €
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No95%
- Yes+1.0pt5%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 2,9 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 5285,2 €
- Recession in 2027?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will the US have an economic depression before January 2030??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 87% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will the US have an economic depression before January 2030? entschieden?
- Will the US have an economic depression before January 2030? soll am 1. Januar 2031 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will the US have an economic depression before January 2030? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolution Criteria: