By 2028, will economists attribute a visible break in US economic or productivity trends to AI?
One-OffKIMakro & Wirtschaft1J
Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 70.8%
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Veraltet1. Aug. 26, 16:26 UTC2. Jan. 28, 07:59 UTC
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By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
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Related to ACX five year predictions.
- I will resolve this based on my impression of the consensus of economists at that time.
- By "visible break", I mean clearly larger than ordinary year-to-year variation, and widely remarked upon.
- Update 2025-19-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarifications:
- A direct effect of AI refers to economic changes directly caused by AI itself, and does not include effects resulting from phenomena like an AI industry bubble bursting.
- Resolution note: This market resolves identically to the corresponding source market, including N/A or partial resolutions.
