Will weakly general AI double US total factor productivity growth within ten years?
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Once weakly general AI has been developed, as defined by this question, https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/date-weakly-general-ai-is-publicly-known/ (year x), will US total factor productivity (TFP) growth double within ten years? I'll be using Fred's Total Factor Productivity at Constant National Prices for United States time series.
- Unfortunately, this data has very high variance, making a year x and year x + 10 comparison somewhat meaningless.
- I will resolve this yes if the ten year average on year x + 10 is double the ten year average on year x.
- Unfortunately this is still highly susceptible to other things, like recessions, but I couldn't think of anything better.
- Suggestions welcome.
- The twenty year average is much more stable, but the year x + 10 twenty year average would be pulled down by pre-AGI years, and so wouldn't work.
