Will the economic gap between the USA and Western Europe be greater in 2030?
WirtschaftOne-OffEurope4JManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 66%
Prognostiker
26
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 10 Stunden
Veraltet28. Aug. 23, 20:59 UTC31. Dez. 30, 22:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will the US have an economic depression before January 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill China have an economic recession induced by overcapacity before EOY 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Mexico go through two or more years of negative economic growth by EOY 2030?
Manifold MarketsUS economic state at the end of 2026?
PolymarketWill there be a Trump economic boom?
KalshiUS economic recession in 2026?
FutuurRegeln
This will be resolved based on the percentage difference in GDP per person in US dollars at purchase power parity (PPP).
- [image]I define Western Europe as something like the EU prior to the admission of Poland (minus Greece, plus Switzerland, Norway), but I don't expect to litigate the concept; the economies are highly correlated and the big countries will drive the result.
Offene Märkte
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 89,9 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 1,7 Mio. €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 541.193 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 30.703 €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 334.228 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 12.782,3 €
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 10.726,9 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 10.726,9 €
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 612.533,9 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 6886,5 €
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No95%
- Yes+1.0pt5%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 2,9 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 5285,2 €
- Recession in 2027?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will the economic gap between the USA and Western Europe be greater in 2030??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 66% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will the economic gap between the USA and Western Europe be greater in 2030? entschieden?
- Will the economic gap between the USA and Western Europe be greater in 2030? soll am 31. Dezember 2030 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will the economic gap between the USA and Western Europe be greater in 2030? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: This will be resolved based on the percentage difference in GDP per person in US dollars at purchase power parity (PPP).