Will China have an economic recession induced by overcapacity before EOY 2030?
WirtschaftOne-OffGesundheit & MedizinSchachGeopolitikChinaSport4J
Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 73.3%
Prognostiker
9
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 36 Minuten
17. Aug. 26, 06:01 UTC31. Dez. 30, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Makro-Sensible Assets
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
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KalshiRegeln
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, at any point before the end of December 31, 2030, China enters an economic recession that is widely attributed to industrial overcapacity.
- For the purposes of this market, an economic recession in China is defined by meeting at least one of the following conditions:
- Negative GDP Growth: China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reports negative real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth (either quarter-on-quarter or year-on-year) for at least two consecutive quarters.
- Institutional/Multilateral Declaration: The International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, or a consensus of leading financial news outlets (specifically Bloomberg, Reuters, and the Financial Times) explicitly declares that China has entered a "recession" (including a "balance sheet recession" or "structural recession").
- To satisfy the condition "induced by overcapacity":
