Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 86.6%
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31
Fragetyp
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Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 7 Stunden
Veraltet3. Apr. 25, 03:56 UTC31. Dez. 29, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will there be another global pandemic before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a global pause on the largest AI training runs at any point before AGI?
Manifold MarketsBy end of 2028, will there be a global AI organization, responsible for AI safety and regulations?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a global wealth or income tax by 2035?
Manifold MarketsRecession this year?
KalshiCore CPI YoY in November
KalshiRegeln
Resolves YES if global GDP decreases by 10% according to the following page or an equivalent release from the IMF: https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD
- The decrease does not have to happen over one year.
- Two years of 6% decreases in a row would resolve YES.
- The market resolves NO if there is a brief decrease which does not show up on the yearly data (for example, the 2020 recession would not qualify, even if it briefly caused 10% GDP decline).
- I believe the last historical example of a global depression was 1929-1932.