Us market crash in 2026?
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 6 Minuten
10. Jan. 26, 06:42 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will the stock market crash if the Republicans win the midterms?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the next big economic crash occur?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a real estate crash in the US in 2026?
Manifold MarketsJobs numbers in Sep 2026?
KalshiJobs numbers in Nov 2026?
KalshiJobs numbers in October 2026?
KalshiRegeln
Resolution Criteria
- A market crash is generally defined as a decline of 20% or more in the S&P 500 index.
- This market resolves YES if the S&P 500 closes at or below 5,476 points at any time during 2026 (a 20% decline from the 6,845.5 closing level at the end of 2025).
- Resolution will be verified using the S&P 500 historical data from FRED or MarketWatch S&P 500 tracker.
- The S&P 500 rose 16.39% in 2025, extending a strong bull market.
- The CAPE ratio has been hovering in the 39-40 range recently and closed 2025 slightly above 40, which is only the second time in the history of the market that this valuation gauge has surpassed 40.
Offene Märkte
FedKALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Hike 25bps+1.0pt52.9%
- Fed maintains rate-3.0pt44.1%
- Hike >25bps1%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 34,5 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 2,6 Mio. €
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+3.0pt54.5%
- No change-3.0pt44.5%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in September 2026
- Hike 25bps+2.0pt51%
- Fed maintains rate-2.0pt43.6%
- Cut 25bps+1.0pt2%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHINext Fed rate hike?
- Before 2028+1.0pt85%
- Before July 2027+5.0pt84%
- Before 202773%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 3,4 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 45.525,8 €
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+0.2pt93%
- 1 (25 bps)-0.1pt5%
- 2 (50 bps)-0.1pt2%
+10 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIFed rate cut before 2027?
- No87%
- Yes+3.8pt13%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 997.035,6 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 41.181,8 €
- Fed Decision in October?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
- What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
- Fed Rate Decision (Oct 2026)
- Fed rate hike by which date?
- Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in September 2026?
- Number of rate cuts in 2026?
- Fed decision in Oct 2026?
- Fed rate cut by which date?
- Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Us market crash in 2026??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 91% (Stand: 9. September 2026).
- Wann wird Us market crash in 2026? entschieden?
- Us market crash in 2026? soll am 31. Dezember 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Us market crash in 2026? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolution Criteria