Will the stock market crash if the Republicans win the midterms?
InflationOne-OffAktienPolitikUS-PolitikWahlUS-Zwischenwahlen 20266T
Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 87.8%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Prognose
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Aktualisiert vor 14 Stunden
Veraltet8. Mai 26, 15:47 UTC3. Nov. 26, 23:59 UTC
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Manifold MarketsWill Republicans win the 2026 midterms election?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve "Yes" if the S&P 500 index closes at least 20% lower than its value on the day of the 2026 U.S. midterm elections within 30 calendar days following the election date.
- If the S&P 500 does not decline by at least 20% within this 30-day window, the market will resolve "No."
- The closing price of the S&P 500 on the day of the election and the subsequent daily closing prices will be verified using official data from S&P Dow Jones Indices or a reliable financial reporting source such as Bloomberg or Yahoo Finance.
- A "crash" is defined here as a sudden, rapid, double-digit decline in the index value, specifically reaching or exceeding a 20% drop from the election-day closing price at any point within the specified timeframe.
- A stock market crash is generally characterized by a sudden, dramatic, and widespread decline in stock prices, often driven by panic selling and significant loss of market value.