Will the US enter a recession in 2026?
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Veraltet12. Feb. 26, 09:21 UTC1. Jan. 27, 00:00 UTC
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If Trump wins, will the US enter a recession [WARNING: as measured by Sahm rule] before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the US enter a recession (2 consecutive quarters of GDP decline) by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the US enter a recession by the end of 2025?
Manifold MarketsWill the United States economy enter a recession by the end of Q4 2026?
ForecastExWill Canada's economy enter a recession by the end of Q4 2026?
ForecastExWill the Eurozone enter a recession before the end of Q4 2026?
ForecastExRegeln
Resolves YES if the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) declares that the US economy entered a recession at any point during 2026, OR if two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth are recorded in 2026.
- Key context:
- Tariff escalation with China, EU, and other trading partners is creating economic uncertainty
- Federal spending cuts from DOGE are reducing government contribution to GDP
- Bitcoin and equity markets have experienced significant corrections in early 2026
- Unemployment has ticked up from 4.0% to 4.3%
