PolymarketVerfügbarkeit prüfenKein KYC2% GebührVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätKeine aktiven Kurse
Daten vom 18.09.2026, 02:41 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-3
Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
2028 17%
Marktqualitat
41 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
—
Liquidität
2852,6 €
Mittlere LiquiditätGeld / Brief
8.0% / 14.0%
Spread
6.0 pt
Breiter SpreadKommentare
1
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 9 Minuten
10. Juni 26, 02:31 UTC1. Jan. 29, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Congress enact an increase in the retirement age for Social Security before the end of 2028?
ForecastExSocial Security COLA for 2028
KalshiWill I still feel that it is important to protect my social security number (SSN) in 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill Social Security cease to be by 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill Social Security’s retirement trust fund be depleted?
KalshiWill social security go bankrupt by 2030?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated.
- A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
- A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
- The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Offene Märkte
EconomyKALSHIInflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.2%98%
- Above 3.1%+2.0pt98%
- Above 3.3%98%
+18 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 266.407 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 76.429,4 €
KALSHIUnemployment in September
- Above 3.8%+1.0pt98%
- Above 3.7%97%
- Above 3.9%+1.0pt92%
+11 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 93.133,2 €
- 24h-Volumen
KALSHICPI in September
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above 0.2%+1.0pt99%
- Above 0.0%99%
+11 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 157.735,6 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 35.329,5 €
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No94%
- Yes-1.0pt6%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 3,1 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 12.271,6 €
POLYMARKETUS recession by end of 2026?
- No+2.0pt90.1%
- Yes-2.0pt9.9%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1,7 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 12.129 €
KALSHICore inflation in September 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
- Above 2.1%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.2%+1.0pt98%
- Above 2.3%+5.0pt86%
+12 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Recession in 2027?
- CPI core in October
- CPI core in September
- Inflation in December 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Inflation in November 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Core inflation in November 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
- CPI in October
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- US Nominal GDP in 2026
- China unemployment rate in September
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Social Security Insolvent by which date??
- Polymarket bewertet 2028 mit 17% (Stand: 18. September 2026).
- Wann wird Social Security Insolvent by which date? entschieden?
- Social Security Insolvent by which date? soll am 1. Januar 2029 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Social Security Insolvent by which date? abgerechnet?
- Polymarket rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET.