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  1. Prognosemärkte
  2. Wirtschaft
  3. Social Security Insolvent by...?
Social Security Insolvent by...?

Social Security Insolvent by...?

15.0% (24h)WirtschaftOne-OffUS Politics2J
PolymarketPolymarketVerfügbarkeit prüfenKein KYC2% Gebühr
Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
2028
2028 27%-22.5%
Marktqualitat

44 / 100

Niedrige Qualität
24h-Volumen

87 €

Liquidität

3172 €

Mittlere Liquidität
Geld / Brief

6.0% / 19.0%

Spread

216.7%

Breiter Spread
Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 9 Minuten

10. Juni 26, 2:421. Jan. 29, 4:59

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit

Gewähltes Ergebnis

202827%

Regeln

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated.
  • A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
  • A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
  • The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Verwandte Märkte

2026: Trump's bad year?

2026: Trump's bad year?

8,8 €
Ja: 14%KalshiKALSHI
Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?

Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?

2,5 €
Ja: 37%KalshiKALSHI
2026: Trump's dream year?

2026: Trump's dream year?

5,2 €
Ja: 9%KalshiKALSHI
Japan recession in 2026?

Japan recession in 2026?

0 €
Ja: 26%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Japan GDP growth in Q2 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?

Japan GDP growth in Q2 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?

5,1 €
-2.4%– -1.6%: 47%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
US recession by end of 2026?

US recession by end of 2026?

3181,9 €
Ja: 20%PolymarketPOLYMARKET

In diesen Themen aktiv

BitcoinBTC$62,652.06+2.46%EthereumETH$1,650.89+1.90%SolanaSOL$65.15+1.75%DogecoinDOGE$0.085+1.87%XRPXRP$1.12+0.43%BNBBNB$595.25+1.81%

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Regeln

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated.
  • A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
  • A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
  • The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.