US defaults on debt by 2027?
1.6 Pkt. (24h)One-OffBonds & TreasuriesMacro & EconomyUS PoliticsWirtschaft3Mon
PolymarketVerfügbarkeit prüfenKein KYC2% GebührVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Nein 97%-1.6pt
Marktqualitat
67 / 100
Mittlere Qualität24h-Volumen
812 €
Liquidität
2095 €
Niedrige LiquiditätGeld / Brief
2.7% / 3.8%
Spread
1.1 pt
Enger SpreadKommentare
0
7d-Änderung
+1.9 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 6 Minuten
5. Nov. 25, 19:50 UTC31. Dez. 26, 00:00 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Regeln
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
- The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Vergleich von Prognosequellen
Offene Märkte
Bonds & TreasuriesPOLYMARKETHow low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
- 4.0%+0.3pt100%
- 3.9%-0.7pt9%
- 3.8%+3.0pt8%
+6 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 211.333,9 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 7296,1 €
POLYMARKETHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
- 4.82%-27.0pt50%
- 4.85%-25.5pt41%
- 4.94%-10.0pt30%
+6 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- 4.5%+11.2pt100%
- 4.6%+4.9pt100%
- 4.4%-1.5pt100%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETHow low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?
- Below 4.76%+5.5pt79%
- Below 4.73%+15.5pt76%
- Below 4.70%+9.0pt59%
+6 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHI10Y US Treasury yield on Sep 8, 2026?
- 4.66% or above99%
- 4.68% or above99%
- 4.7% or above99%
+12 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 2263,9 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 2149,5 €
KALSHI30Y US Treasury yield on Sep 8, 2026?
- 5.19% or above99%
- 5.17% or above99%
- 5.11% or above99%
+12 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 2162,8 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 2012,2 €
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Sep 8, 2026?
- Will NU sell $250M in bonds for the Big Red Rebuild?
- 5Y US Treasury yield on Sep 8, 2026?
- 7Y US Treasury yield on Sep 8, 2026?
- 30Y US Treasury yield on Sep 11, 2026?
- Bank of Canada rate on December 31, 2026
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Sep 11, 2026?
- How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in September?
- How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in September?
- How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
- Japan 10Y Bond Yield: End of 2026
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für US defaults on debt by 2027??
- Polymarket bewertet No mit 97% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird US defaults on debt by 2027? entschieden?
- US defaults on debt by 2027? soll am 31. Dezember 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird US defaults on debt by 2027? abgerechnet?
- Polymarket rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Wo wird US defaults on debt by 2027? außerdem gelistet?
- Dieselbe Frage wird auch auf Kalshi gelistet.