KalshiVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlich2% GebührVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Nein 98%
Marktqualitat
≤49 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
—
Liquidität
19.135,6 €
Mittlere LiquiditätGeld / Brief
1.0% / 2.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Enger SpreadMarktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 6 Minuten
11. März 26, 20:00 UTC20. Okt. 26, 12:29 UTC
Trends
Makro-Sensible Assets
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
DOGE cuts $1T federal deficit by FY 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS defaults on debt by 2027?
PolymarketWhen will the US have a sovereign debt crisis?
Manifold MarketsHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
PolymarketHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
Polymarket2Y US Treasury yield on Sep 9, 2026?
KalshiRegeln
If the U.S. federal budget deficit as a percentage of GDP for fiscal year 2026, as reported in the U.S. Treasury / Office of Management and Budget Joint Statement on Budget Results for Fiscal Year 2026, is below 5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Abwicklung über:U.S. Treasury / OMB
Offene Märkte
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase+0.1pt1%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 91 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 1,7 Mio. €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 569.721,2 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 47.363,9 €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 359.180,6 €
- 24h-Volumen
KALSHIUnited Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.5% of GDP-2.0pt94%
- Above -5.0% of GDP-6.0pt90%
- Above -4.5% of GDP80%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 16.442,1 €
KALSHIGermany’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.0% of GDP-1.0pt96%
- Above -4.5% of GDP-8.0pt86%
- Above -4.0% of GDP+1.0pt51%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No78%
- Yes-3.0pt22%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 314.673,8 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 9494 €
- CPI core in August
- US government budget balance in 2026
- Japan’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- US recession by end of 2026?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Recession this year?
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
Zugehörige Kryptos
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für U.S. federal deficit-to-GDP below 5% for FY2026??
- Kalshi bewertet No mit 98% (Stand: 9. September 2026).
- Wann wird U.S. federal deficit-to-GDP below 5% for FY2026? entschieden?
- U.S. federal deficit-to-GDP below 5% for FY2026? soll am 20. Oktober 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird U.S. federal deficit-to-GDP below 5% for FY2026? abgerechnet?
- Kalshi rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: If the U.S. federal budget deficit as a percentage of GDP for fiscal year 2026, as reported in the U.S. Treasury / Office of Management and Budget Joint Statement on Budget Results for Fiscal Year 2026, is below 5%, then the market resolves to Yes.