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  1. Prognosemärkte
  2. Wirtschaft
  3. Japan recession in 2026?
Japan recession in 2026?

Japan recession in 2026?

1.5% (24h)WirtschaftOne-OffUS Politics9Mon
PolymarketPolymarketVerfügbarkeit prüfenKein KYC2% Gebühr
Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Ja
Ja 27%+0.0%
Marktqualitat

24 / 100

Niedrige Qualität
24h-Volumen

0 €

Liquidität

634,8 €

Niedrige Liquidität
Geld / Brief

20.0% / 34.0%

Spread

70.0%

Breiter Spread
7d-Änderung

-4.0%

Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 1 Minute

23. Apr. 26, 22:2731. März 27, 0:00

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit

Gewähltes Ergebnis

Yes27%

Regeln

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Japan’s seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter percent change in real GDP (Quarterly Real Growth Rate, Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter), as reported by the Cabinet Office, is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • This market includes estimates reported in both the Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) and Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) releases for the relevant quarters.
  • This market’s resolution will be based on the most recently available qualifying estimates for the relevant quarters at the time of each relevant release.
  • Any two consecutive quarters with qualifying negative GDP growth will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of prior or later revisions.
  • For example, if upon release the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate is also negative, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

Makro-Sensible Assets

BitcoinBTC$62,915.76+2.84%EthereumETH$1,659.26+2.18%SolanaSOL$65.38+2.34%

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Regeln

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Japan’s seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter percent change in real GDP (Quarterly Real Growth Rate, Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter), as reported by the Cabinet Office, is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • This market includes estimates reported in both the Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) and Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) releases for the relevant quarters.
  • This market’s resolution will be based on the most recently available qualifying estimates for the relevant quarters at the time of each relevant release.
  • Any two consecutive quarters with qualifying negative GDP growth will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of prior or later revisions.
  • For example, if upon release the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate is also negative, this market will resolve to “Yes”.