KalshiVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlich2% GebührAktuelle implizite WahrscheinlichkeitQ1 2026 3%Führend unter 6 Optionen
Marktqualitat
28 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
0,1 €
Liquidität
1544,8 €
Niedrige LiquiditätGeld / Brief
3.3% / 7.8%
Spread
136.4%
Breiter SpreadMarktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 3 Minuten
16. Aug. 25, 17:3031. Dez. 26, 15:00
Trends
0%
0%
Gewähltes Ergebnis
Q1 20263%
Makro-Sensible Assets
Verwandte Märkte
US recession by end of 2026?
3181,9 €Ja: 20%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
How high will US unemployment go in 2026?
792,6 €5.0%: 17%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Will Mexico's real GDP grow by at least 1.6% in 2026?
259,9 €Ja: 27.8%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSJune Unemployment Rate
134,5 €4.3%: 32%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
US real GDP growth in 2030?
134,1 €2.6% to 3.0%: 11%KALSHI
KALSHIWill Nigeria have a larger GDP than South Africa in 2026?
80,4 €Ja: 47.8%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Regeln
If the NBER declares the peak of American business activity predating a recession to be in Q4 2024, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Clarification 4/15/25 3:00 AM ET: The determination for this market will be based on which quarter NBER highlights (independent of the month they highlight).
- For example, the most recent recession written as "February 2020 (2019Q4)" would resolve YES for the market called "Q4 2019" (if this was listed).
- If the NBER declares the peak of American business activity predating a recession to be in Q1 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the NBER declares the peak of American business activity predating a recession to be in Q2 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the NBER declares the peak of American business activity predating a recession to be in Q3 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.