KalshiVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlich2% GebührVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Q1 2026 1%-0.1ptFührend unter 6 Optionen
Marktqualitat
60 / 100
Mittlere Qualität24h-Volumen
10 €
Liquidität
154.326,7 €
Hohe LiquiditätSpread
2.7 pt
Mittlerer SpreadMarktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 9 Minuten
19. März 25, 14:00 UTC31. Dez. 26, 15:00 UTC
Trends
0%
0%
0%
Makro-Sensible Assets
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Regeln
If the NBER declares the peak of American business activity predating a recession to be in the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Abwicklung über:NBER
- Clarification 4/15/25 3:00 AM ET: The determination for this market will be based on which quarter NBER highlights (independent of the month they highlight).
- For example, the most recent recession written as "February 2020 (2019Q4)" would resolve YES for the market called "Q4 2019" (if this was listed).
Offene Märkte
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+12.0pt64.7%
- No change-12.0pt34.3%
- 50+ bps increase+0.2pt1%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 97,8 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 4,8 Mio. €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.0%+2.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.7%99%
+23 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 702.460,4 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 91.038,4 €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above -0.2%+3.0pt99%
+12 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 399.989,3 €
- 24h-Volumen
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%-1.0pt87%
- Above 0.2%-8.0pt26%
+8 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 34.473,1 €
KALSHIUnited Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.5% of GDP92%
- Above -5.0% of GDP79%
- Above -4.5% of GDP-5.0pt62%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 28.300,6 €
- 24h-Volumen
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No97%
- Yes-3.0pt3%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 2,9 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 4885,8 €
- Core inflation in August 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- GDP growth in 2026
- China unemployment rate in August
- US government budget balance in 2026
- Recession in 2027?
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026
- Will the US Unemployment Rate exceed 3.8% in October 2026? (Jobless) (Jobs) (Labor market) (Layoffs) (Economy)?
- More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?
Zugehörige Kryptos
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für When will the next US recession start??
- Kalshi bewertet Q1 2026 mit 1% (Stand: 10. September 2026).
- Wann wird When will the next US recession start? entschieden?
- When will the next US recession start? soll am 31. Dezember 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird When will the next US recession start? abgerechnet?
- Kalshi rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: If the NBER declares the peak of American business activity predating a recession to be in the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.