Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose0 84.3%Führend unter 7 Optionen
Prognostiker
32
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 16 Stunden
Veraltet16. Jan. 26, 01:12 UTC20. Jan. 29, 11:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
What Will Happen During Trump's Second Term (2025-2029)?
Manifold MarketsHow many times will the Fed raise rates during Trump's second term?
Manifold MarketsWill a Supreme Court justice retire during Trump’s second term?
Manifold MarketsWill the US take control of any part of Greenland?
KalshiHow much will the US acquire Greenland for?
KalshiWill any portion of Greenland become a US state, territory, or other federal jurisdiction by December 31, 2028?
ForecastExRegeln
Military combat deaths, combined, across any military.
- Update 2026-01-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Civilians killed by military are generally counted as combat deaths.
- Resolution may depend on practical realities of available source data and how sources count deaths.
- The creator may use Wikipedia infobox data as the source, though this is not definitively committed to.
Offene Märkte
Geopolitics
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 22,2 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 470.753,1 €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 35,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 100.050,2 €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für How many combat deaths will there be in Greenland during Trump's second term??
- Manifold Markets bewertet 0 mit 84% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird How many combat deaths will there be in Greenland during Trump's second term? entschieden?
- How many combat deaths will there be in Greenland during Trump's second term? soll am 20. Januar 2029 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird How many combat deaths will there be in Greenland during Trump's second term? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Military combat deaths, combined, across any military.