At close, what % of the Manifold users will think that GiveWell's work before 2023 was net positive? Resolves in 100 years, but has .1% chance to resolve each year. Vote Yes to increase %.
GeopolitikOne-OffGesellschaft & KulturManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 86.9%
Prognostiker
22
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 15 Stunden
Veraltet13. Dez. 22, 10:59 UTC31. Dez. 23, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Do Manifold users think that Model UN is dumb? (resolves end of 2026)
Manifold MarketsWhen Manifold's AGI countdown resolves YES, will Manifold users think that AGI really has been achieved?
Manifold MarketsWhen will manifold users think we have AGI? [Resolves to a majority yes in poll]
Manifold MarketsAt the end of 2030 will Manifold users think Wikipedia has changed for the better compared to 2020?
Manifold MarketsWill Minnesota vote to increase school-fund distributions?
Kalshiwhat countries will legalize gay marriage by 2030
Manifold MarketsRegeln
Ie using all the knowledge we have at the time! So if the increased wealth starts a war that noone could have forseen, this still resolves negatilvely.
- Rolling 1000 on a 1-1000 randomiser will resolve.
