Aktuelle Community-Prognose
2026 - 2028 inclusive 47.7%Führend unter 5 Optionen
Prognostiker
20
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 55 Minuten
Verzogert4. Nov. 23, 13:29 UTC11. Nov. 30, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
When Manifold's AGI countdown resolves YES, will Manifold users think that AGI really has been achieved?
Manifold MarketsDo Manifold users think that Model UN is dumb? (resolves end of 2026)
Manifold MarketsAt close, what % of the Manifold users will think that GiveWell's work before 2023 was net positive? Resolves in 100 years, but has .1% chance to resolve each year. Vote Yes to increase %.
Manifold MarketsAt the end of 2030 will Manifold users think Wikipedia has changed for the better compared to 2020?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRegeln
Yearly manifold poll.
- Do we currenly have AGI
- I don't know
- Bad quesiton
- We need a majority on Yes of all answers (not just yes/no)