Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 70.4%
Prognostiker
15
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 15 Stunden
Veraltet28. Juli 26, 04:56 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
One year later, how will Manifold users view the effects of arXiv's separation from Cornell University?
Manifold MarketsIf Trump wins, will Manifold users vote that his performance has been better than they expected by the midterms?
Manifold MarketsAt the beginning of 2030, what percentage of Manifold users will have a strongly negative opinion of Scott Alexander?
Manifold MarketsPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketRegeln
I will open a yes/no poll titled "Is Model UN is dumb?" when this market closes (end of 2026).
- The poll will go on for 10 days and the market will resolve to the majority's vote.
- For context, Model UN stands for Model United Nations:
- It's mostly a high school activity
- Basically a simulation of the real United Nations where students, called "delegates" are each assigned a country to represent (roleplay...)
- For each conference, a group of "delegates" (there are often hundreds of delegates per group) are assigned a topic to adress
Offene Märkte
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 605,7 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 695.731,8 €
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 603,2 Mio. €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.4pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+9.8pt96%
- $25M+15.5pt94%
- $50M+31.5pt86%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party84.2%
- Republican Party15.8%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 24,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 294.676,9 €
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.7%
- Marco Rubio20.4%
- Ron DeSantis3.9%
+35 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 54,7 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 291.319,2 €
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Trump renames New Mexico to New America by which date?
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Do Manifold users think that Model UN is dumb? (resolves end of 2026)?
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 70% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Do Manifold users think that Model UN is dumb? (resolves end of 2026) entschieden?
- Do Manifold users think that Model UN is dumb? (resolves end of 2026) soll am 31. Dezember 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Do Manifold users think that Model UN is dumb? (resolves end of 2026) abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: I will open a yes/no poll titled "Is Model UN is dumb?" when this market closes (end of 2026).