FutuurVerfügbarkeit prüfenVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenAktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Nein 91%
Nein 91%Marktqualitat
32 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
—
Liquidität
887,6 €
Niedrige LiquiditätTrader
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will a country leave NATO this year?
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PolymarketWill another country leave OPEC in 2026?
KalshiRegeln
This event predicts whether any member country of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) will formally withdraw from the alliance at any time during calendar year 2026.
- The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official withdrawal notifications or statements issued by NATO or by a member state formally invoking withdrawal procedures.
- If any NATO member formally announces and completes its withdrawal from NATO during 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- Political statements expressing dissatisfaction, threats to withdraw, or partial non-compliance without formal withdrawal will not count.
- If official communications are ambiguous, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on consistent reporting from major international news organizations citing NATO or the withdrawing state.