Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 95.7%
Prognostiker
30
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 3 Stunden
Veraltet6. Jan. 26, 22:37 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will any country leave NATO by which date?
PolymarketWill any country leave NATO in 2026?
FutuurWill USA leave NATO by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsIf Trump wins, will the USA pass legislation to leave NATO by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhat is the next country to leave NATO?
Manifold MarketsWill another country leave OPEC in 2026?
PolymarketRegeln
Resolution criteria
- As of 2026, no member state has rescinded their membership, but this market resolves YES if any NATO member country formally notifies the United States of withdrawal under Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty before December 31, 2026.
- A country must send the United States a "notice of denunciation," which the U.S. would then pass on to the other Allies, and after a one-year waiting period, the country would be out.
- The market resolves YES if such notice is formally issued during 2026, regardless of when the one-year waiting period expires.
- Resolution will be verified through official NATO announcements or statements from the withdrawing country's government.
- Considerations
Offene Märkte
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will a country leave NATO this year??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 96% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will a country leave NATO this year? entschieden?
- Will a country leave NATO this year? soll am 31. Dezember 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will a country leave NATO this year? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolution criteria