Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?

One-OffCiência Weather6m

PolymarketVerificar disponibilidadeSem KYC2% de taxa

Probabilidade implícita atual

Sim 8%

Qualidade do mercado

24 / 100

Baixa qualidade

Volume 24h

0 €

Liquidez

75,8 €

Baixa liquidez

Compra / Venda

5.0% / 10.0%

Spread

100.0%

Spread amplo

Variação 7d

+0.5%

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 3 minutos

21/04/26, 19:4131/12/26, 0:00

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Resultado escolhido

Yes8%

Aposta (USDT)

Regras

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred.
If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S.

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Regras

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred.
If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S.

Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?

One-OffCiência Weather6m

PolymarketVerificar disponibilidadeSem KYC2% de taxa

Probabilidade implícita atual

Sim 8%

Qualidade do mercado

24 / 100

Baixa qualidade

Volume 24h

0 €

Liquidez

75,8 €

Baixa liquidez

Compra / Venda

5.0% / 10.0%

Spread

100.0%

Spread amplo

Variação 7d

+0.5%

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 3 minutos

21/04/26, 19:4131/12/26, 0:00

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Resultado escolhido

Yes8%

Aposta (USDT)

Regras

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred.
If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S.

Mercados Relacionados

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

3,7 mil €

2: 63%

POLYMARKET

Highest monthly CO2 level at Mauna Loa in first half of 2026

849 €

432 or less: 0.4%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Natural Disaster in 2026?

37,4 €

Sim: 25%

POLYMARKET

When will El Niño conditions be declared present?

1,2 €

Before Jul 1, 2026: 70%

KALSHI

How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030?

0,3 €

At least 440: 89%

KALSHI

Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050?

0,1 €

Sim: 77%

KALSHI

Ativos nestes tópicos

BitcoinBTC$62,697.80+1.63%

EthereumETH$1,653.23+0.81%

SolanaSOL$64.96+0.69%

DogecoinDOGE$0.0848+0.65%

XRPXRP$1.11-0.28%

BNBBNB$597.52+1.49%

Notícias Relacionadas

Anthropic’s Claude Tackles Chemistry with NMR Structure AnalysisBlockchain.News

Quantus’ Q-Day Brings Together Leading Cryptographers, Blockchain Builders, Investors, and Researchers to Prepare for the Post-Quantum FutureBlockchain Reporter

Regras

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred.
If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S.