Probabilidade implícita atual
Não 95%
Qualidade do mercado
42 / 100
Baixa qualidadeVolume 24h
—
Liquidez
441,6 €
Baixa liquidezCompra / Venda
1.3% / 7.9%
Spread
6.6 pt
Spread amploComentários
4
Variação 7d
-0.1 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 11 minutos
21/04/26, 19:35 UTC1/01/27, 04:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
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KalshiRegras
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
- This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred.
- If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
- If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026??
- A Polymarket cota No em 95% em 9 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026? é resolvido?
- Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2027.
- Como Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026? é liquidado?
- A Polymarket liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.