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  3. Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

3.5% (24h)One-OffCiênciaWeather6m
PolymarketPolymarketVerificar disponibilidadeSem KYC2% de taxa
Probabilidade implícita atual
2
2 63%+1.5%
Líder entre 6 opções
Qualidade do mercado

80 / 100

Alta qualidade
Volume 24h

3,4 mil €

Liquidez

64,8 mil €

Alta liquidez
Compra / Venda

27.0% / 29.0%

Spread

7.4%

Spread moderado
Variação 7d

-0.5%

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 3 minutos

12/11/25, 22:5431/12/26, 0:00

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade
5
5
0%

Resultado escolhido

263%

Regras

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.

Polymarket
  • Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
  • If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
  • This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
  • The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt).
  • If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.

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Regras

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.

Polymarket
  • Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
  • If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
  • This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
  • The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt).
  • If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.