Probabilidade implícita atual
Não 94%
Não 94%Qualidade do mercado
≤49 / 100
Baixa qualidadeVolume 24h
—
Liquidez
5,1 mil €
Liquidez médiaCompra / Venda
6.0% / 6.7%
Spread
0.7 pt
Spread apertadoComentários
10
Variação 7d
-0.1 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 11 minutos
29/12/25, 23:25 UTC1/04/27, 03:59 UTC
Tendências
Condições da plataforma
Fonte: Polymarket
Estas condições são informativas; as operações simuladas da CoinRithm seguem regras próprias.
- Ordem mínima (cotas):
- 5
- Incremento de preço:
- 0,1 pontos percentuais
- Taxas:
- Sim
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Major volcano eruption in 2026?
KalshiVesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?
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PolymarketHow many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
PolymarketWill any Manifold user be killed in a volcanic eruption before 2050?
Manifold MarketsMount Spurr significant eruption by date?
Manifold MarketsRegras
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET.
- Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
- If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
- Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.