How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?

0.1% (24h)One-OffCiência9m

PolymarketVerificar disponibilidadeSem KYC2% de taxa

Probabilidade implícita atual

0 70%+4.0%

Líder entre 6 opções

Qualidade do mercado

44 / 100

Baixa qualidade

Volume 24h

1,8 €

Liquidez

11,5 mil €

Liquidez média

Compra / Venda

0.5% / 1.6%

Spread

220.0%

Spread amplo

Variação 7d

+0.2%

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 2 minutos

2/01/26, 18:5631/03/27, 0:00

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Resultado escolhido

070%

Aposta (USDT)

Regras

This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET.
Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S.
Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.

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Regras

This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET.
Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S.
Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.

How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?

0.1% (24h)One-OffCiência9m

PolymarketVerificar disponibilidadeSem KYC2% de taxa

Probabilidade implícita atual

0 70%+4.0%

Líder entre 6 opções

Qualidade do mercado

44 / 100

Baixa qualidade

Volume 24h

1,8 €

Liquidez

11,5 mil €

Liquidez média

Compra / Venda

0.5% / 1.6%

Spread

220.0%

Spread amplo

Variação 7d

+0.2%

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 2 minutos

2/01/26, 18:5631/03/27, 0:00

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Resultado escolhido

070%

Aposta (USDT)

Regras

This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET.
Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S.
Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.

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Sim: 20.8%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?

1,1 mil €

Before 2027: 14%

KALSHI

Highest monthly CO2 level at Mauna Loa in first half of 2026

848,9 €

432 or less: 0.4%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026?

296,9 €

Sim: 80%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Ativos nestes tópicos

BitcoinBTC$62,655.03+2.33%

EthereumETH$1,650.38+1.55%

SolanaSOL$65.14+1.56%

DogecoinDOGE$0.085+1.70%

XRPXRP$1.12+0.21%

BNBBNB$595.20+1.63%

Notícias Relacionadas

Anthropic’s Claude Tackles Chemistry with NMR Structure AnalysisBlockchain.News

Quantus’ Q-Day Brings Together Leading Cryptographers, Blockchain Builders, Investors, and Researchers to Prepare for the Post-Quantum FutureBlockchain Reporter

Regras

This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET.
Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S.
Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.