Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 85.7%
Previsores
31
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 14 horas
Desatualizado3/04/25, 03:56 UTC31/12/29, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will there be another global pandemic before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a global pause on the largest AI training runs at any point before AGI?
Manifold MarketsWill the US have an economic depression before January 2030?
Manifold MarketsFed Decision in September?
PolymarketInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
KalshiCPI in August
KalshiRegras
Resolves YES if global GDP decreases by 10% according to the following page or an equivalent release from the IMF: https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD
- The decrease does not have to happen over one year.
- Two years of 6% decreases in a row would resolve YES.
- The market resolves NO if there is a brief decrease which does not show up on the yearly data (for example, the 2020 recession would not qualify, even if it briefly caused 10% GDP decline).
- I believe the last historical example of a global depression was 1929-1932.
Mercados abertos
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt46%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 90,1 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 1,5 mi
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
+12 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 358,6 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 35,8 mil
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
+23 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 548,3 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 29,8 mil
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP-23.0pt71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP-2.0pt58%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 10,7 mil
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+3.0pt87%
- Above 0.2%-4.0pt32%
+8 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 17,7 mil
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No78%
- Yes-2.0pt22%
- Volume total
- € 310,3 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 6,5 mil
- Recession this year?
- CPI in September
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will there be a global depression in the 2020s??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 86% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will there be a global depression in the 2020s? é resolvido?
- Will there be a global depression in the 2020s? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2029.
- Como Will there be a global depression in the 2020s? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolves YES if global GDP decreases by 10% according to the following page or an equivalent release from the IMF: https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD