Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 86.6%
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31
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binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 34 minutos
3/04/25, 03:56 UTC31/12/29, 23:59 UTC
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KalshiRegras
Resolves YES if global GDP decreases by 10% according to the following page or an equivalent release from the IMF: https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD
- The decrease does not have to happen over one year.
- Two years of 6% decreases in a row would resolve YES.
- The market resolves NO if there is a brief decrease which does not show up on the yearly data (for example, the 2020 recession would not qualify, even if it briefly caused 10% GDP decline).
- I believe the last historical example of a global depression was 1929-1932.