KalshiVerificar disponibilidadeKYC obrigatório2% de taxaDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoProbabilidade implícita atual
Não 94%
Qualidade do mercado
85 / 100
Alta qualidadeVolume 24h
2,3 mil €
Liquidez
769,9 mil €
Alta liquidezCompra / Venda
5.0% / 6.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Spread apertadoDados do mercado
Atualizado há 7 minutos
14/07/25, 14:00 UTC31/01/27, 13:25 UTC
Tendências
Ativos Sensíveis ao Macro
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Regras
If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 2025 or 2026, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.
Liquida via:Bureau of Economic Analysis
- The market will close at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or 8:25 AM ET on the morning of the expected release of the Advance Estimate of 2026 Q4 GDP.
- The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or the first 10:00 AM ET after the release of the Advance Estimate of 2026 Q4 GDP.
Mercados abertos
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+10.0pt64%
- No change-10.0pt35%
- 50+ bps increase+0.4pt1%
+2 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 96,3 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 5,2 mi
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.7%99%
+23 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 656,2 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 85,1 mil
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above -0.2%+3.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 386 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 25,6 mil
KALSHIUnited Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.5% of GDP-2.0pt92%
- Above -5.0% of GDP-10.0pt80%
- Above -4.5% of GDP-20.0pt60%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+1.0pt87%
- Above 0.2%-6.0pt30%
+8 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 29,4 mil
KALSHIState of the economy at the end of 2026
- Soft landing-5.7pt50.5%
- Overheating+11.8pt44.8%
- Stagflation-2.6pt2.9%
+1 mais resultados
- Volume total
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- Core inflation in August 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
- Canada GDP: July 2026 (MoM)
- US government budget balance in 2026
- US real GDP growth in 2034?
- China unemployment rate in August
- GDP growth in 2026
- Japan’s government budget balance in 2026
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
Criptos relacionadas
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Recession this year??
- A Kalshi cota No em 94% em 10 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Recession this year? é resolvido?
- Recession this year? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de janeiro de 2027.
- Como Recession this year? é liquidado?
- A Kalshi liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 2025 or 2026, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.