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  1. Mercados de Previsão
  2. Economia
  3. Recession this year?
Recession this year?

Recession this year?

EconomiaOne-Off7m
KalshiKalshiVerificar disponibilidadeKYC obrigatório2% de taxa
Probabilidade implícita atual
Sim
Sim 18%
Qualidade do mercado

60 / 100

Qualidade média
Volume 24h

67,9 €

Liquidez

7,7 mil €

Liquidez média
Compra / Venda

18.0% / 19.0%

Spread

5.6%

Spread moderado
Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 1 minuto

14/07/25, 14:0031/01/27, 13:25

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Resultado escolhido

Yes18%

Regras

If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 2025 or 2026, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The market will close at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or 8:25 AM ET on the morning of the expected release of the Advance Estimate of 2026 Q4 GDP.
  • The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or the first 10:00 AM ET after the release of the Advance Estimate of 2026 Q4 GDP.

Ativos Sensíveis ao Macro

BitcoinBTC$62,685.50+1.86%EthereumETH$1,654.27+1.27%SolanaSOL$65.03+1.10%

Mercados Relacionados

Recession in 2027?

Recession in 2027?

0,3 €
Sim: 46%KalshiKALSHI
US recession by end of 2026?

US recession by end of 2026?

3,2 mil €
Sim: 20%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
How high will US unemployment go in 2026?

How high will US unemployment go in 2026?

792,7 €
5.0%: 17%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Manifold Markets

Will Mexico's real GDP grow by at least 1.6% in 2026?

259,9 €
Sim: 27.8%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
June Unemployment Rate

June Unemployment Rate

134,6 €
4.4%: 31%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
US real GDP growth in 2030?

US real GDP growth in 2030?

134,2 €
2.6% to 3.0%: 11%KalshiKALSHI

Ativos nestes tópicos

DogecoinDOGE$0.0847+1.07%XRPXRP$1.11+0.03%BNBBNB$596.29+1.58%CardanoADA$0.165+2.34%HyperliquidHYPE$55.53+0.08%LitecoinLTC$42.51+0.14%

Regras

If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 2025 or 2026, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The market will close at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or 8:25 AM ET on the morning of the expected release of the Advance Estimate of 2026 Q4 GDP.
  • The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or the first 10:00 AM ET after the release of the Advance Estimate of 2026 Q4 GDP.