PolymarketVerificar disponibilidadeSem KYC2% de taxaProbabilidade implícita atualSim 20%+0.0%
Qualidade do mercado
80 / 100
Alta qualidadeVolume 24h
3,2 mil €
Liquidez
24,5 mil €
Alta liquidezCompra / Venda
19.0% / 20.0%
Spread
5.3%
Spread moderadoVariação 7d
+1.0%
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 3 minutos
29/09/25, 22:2931/01/27, 0:00
Tendências
Resultado escolhido
Yes20%
Também disponível em Limitless
US recession by end of 2026?
7m
19.5%
80.5%
28 • Baixa qualidadeSpread desconhecidoBaixa liquidezMercado raso
Volume total2,9 mil €
Volume 24h0 €
LIMITLESSRegras
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
- The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
- The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Note that advance estimates will be considered.
- For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes".
Os dados de comparação são apenas informativos. Preços e liquidez podem variar.
Ativos Sensíveis ao Macro
Mercados Relacionados
How high will US unemployment go in 2026?
792,6 €5.0%: 17%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Will Mexico's real GDP grow by at least 1.6% in 2026?
259,9 €Sim: 27.8%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSJune Unemployment Rate
134,5 €4.2%: 31%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
US real GDP growth in 2030?
134,1 €2.6% to 3.0%: 11%
KALSHI
KALSHI
Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year?
96,2 €Sim: 8%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Regras
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
- The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
- The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Note that advance estimates will be considered.
- For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes".