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  1. Mercados de Previsão
  2. Economia
  3. US recession by end of 2026?
US recession by end of 2026?

US recession by end of 2026?

2.0% (24h)EconomiaOne-Off7m
PolymarketPolymarketVerificar disponibilidadeSem KYC2% de taxa
Probabilidade implícita atual
Sim
Sim 20%+0.0%
Qualidade do mercado

80 / 100

Alta qualidade
Volume 24h

3,2 mil €

Liquidez

24,5 mil €

Alta liquidez
Compra / Venda

19.0% / 20.0%

Spread

5.3%

Spread moderado
Variação 7d

+1.0%

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 3 minutos

29/09/25, 22:2931/01/27, 0:00

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Resultado escolhido

Yes20%

LimitlessTambém disponível em Limitless

US recession by end of 2026?

US recession by end of 2026?

7m
Sim
Sim
19.5%
Não
Não
80.5%
28 • Baixa qualidadeSpread desconhecidoBaixa liquidezMercado raso
Volume total2,9 mil €
Volume 24h0 €
LimitlessLIMITLESS

Regras

This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:

Polymarket
  • The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
  • The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • Note that advance estimates will be considered.
  • For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes".

Os dados de comparação são apenas informativos. Preços e liquidez podem variar.

Ativos Sensíveis ao Macro

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How high will US unemployment go in 2026?

How high will US unemployment go in 2026?

792,6 €
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June Unemployment Rate

June Unemployment Rate

134,5 €
4.2%: 31%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
US real GDP growth in 2030?

US real GDP growth in 2030?

134,1 €
2.6% to 3.0%: 11%KalshiKALSHI
Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year?

Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year?

96,2 €
Sim: 8%PolymarketPOLYMARKET

Ativos nestes tópicos

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Regras

This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:

Polymarket
  • The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
  • The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • Note that advance estimates will be considered.
  • For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes".