Will the US government force another frontier AI model shutdown for allied users by mid-2027?
Middle EastOne-OffTecnologiaChinaEuropeIARussia / UkraineRegulamentaçãoUS Politics9m
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Sim 50%
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5
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 10 horas
Desatualizado17/07/26, 11:52 UTC29/06/27, 23:59 UTC
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In June 2026, a US Commerce Department export-control directive forced Anthropic to suspend Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all foreign nationals, producing a 19-day global outage before controls were lifted on June 30.
- This market asks whether the mechanism fires again in near future for the same or different frontier models.
- Resolves YES if:
- between market creation and June 30, 2027, ALL of the following occur:
- Government-mandated.
- A US government body orders or legally compels a US-based AI developer to suspend or restrict access to one of its models.