Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Não 75.5%
Não 75.5%Previsores
211
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Atualizado há 58 minutos
Atrasado16/12/24, 02:35 UTC1/01/30, 21:59 UTC
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KalshiRegras
Resolves YES if by January 1st 2030, the revolutionary regime in the Islamic Republic of Iran collapses, by international media consensus.
- Of course, death of Ali Khamenei in itself does not count as a regime change.
- Update 2025-06-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated the essence of the resolution criteria is whether the people in control of Tehran or most of Iran are still Ayatollahs or hold a similar Shiite-muslim religious title.
