Will Iran get a nuclear weapon before the Islamic Republic falls?
GeopolíticaOne-OffOriente MédioRússia / UcrâniaChina
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 85.4%
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33
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 21 horas
Desatualizado1/02/25, 16:21 UTC1/01/00, 23:59 UTC
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KalshiRegras
Resolves YES if the Islamic Republic of Iran obtains a nuclear weapon before it collapses, according to reliable media outlets.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- I will not bet on this market.
- Update 2025-02-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Weapon Resolution Clarification:
- Dirty bomb does not count as a nuclear weapon.
- Refer to the linked example for further context: Metaculus page
