Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Não 81.6%
Previsores
30
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 14 horas
Desatualizado16/01/24, 21:05 UTC17/12/00, 21:40 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will humanity go extinct before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill closed source software go extinct within 5 years (2029)?
Manifold MarketsDid most cryopreserved humans go 24 hours before cryopreservation?
Manifold MarketsWill the Dodo bird be de-extinct by the end of 2028?
FutuurExtinct mammoth hybrids to be born alive by the end of 2027?
FutuurWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRegras
In 2020, Toby Ord estimates existential risk in the next century at "1 in 6" in his book The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity.
- He also estimated a "1 in 10" risk of extinction by unaligned AI within the next century.
Mercados abertos
Science
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.3pt4%
- April 300%
- June 300%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 58,6 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 453,4 mil
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt21%
- Before 2028+1.0pt15%
- Before 2027+0.1pt6%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 29,3 mi
POLYMARKETAI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
- No+21.0pt82.2%
- Yes-21.0pt17.8%
- Volume total
- € 18 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 4,2 mil
KALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2030+8.9pt80%
- Before 203580%
- Before 2029+0.1pt30%
+2 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 257,3 mil
KALSHIHow many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Above 0-4.0pt35%
- Above 1-3.0pt12%
- Above 2-6.0pt6%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
KALSHIWhen will nuclear fusion be achieved?
- Before 203538.9%
- Before 2040-15.5pt31.9%
- Before 203029.2%
- Volume total
- € 41,4 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 1,6 mil
- When will an AI lab solve another Millennium Prize Problem?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030?
- When will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- US test scores in Reading in 2026?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will Humans go extinct by 2200??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 82% em 15 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will Humans go extinct by 2200? é resolvido?
- Will Humans go extinct by 2200? deverá ser resolvido em 17 de dezembro de 2200.
- Como Will Humans go extinct by 2200? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: In 2020, Toby Ord estimates existential risk in the next century at "1 in 6" in his book The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity.