Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 96%
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81
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binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 15 horas
Desatualizado10/07/23, 20:48 UTC2/01/30, 04:59 UTC
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Will closed source software go extinct within 5 years (2029)?
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KalshiRegras
If at least one human is alive on Jan 1, 2030, then this question resolves to NO.
- For this question, we'll define humans the same as this Metaculus question:
- as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring.
- (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count).
- Any living humans living anywhere in the observable universe (or multiverse) (who are known to the entities operating Metaculus) on that date will be sufficient to resolve the question negatively.
Mercados abertos
Society & CultureKALSHIMaine lobster landings in 2026
- Above 55 million pounds94%
- Above 70 million pounds65%
- Above 75 million pounds44%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 6,9 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 6,2 mil
KALSHIWill California start laying high-speed rail track in 2026?
- Yes60%
- No40%
- Volume total
- € 10,6 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 1,6 mil
KALSHIWho will be in the US News top 20 universities?
- Vanderbilt87%
- Rice84%
- UCLA79%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 15,1 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 431,2
POLYMARKETWill Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
- No+0.5pt82.2%
- Yes-0.5pt17.8%
- Volume total
- € 17,7 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 234,7
FORECASTEXWill UCLA out-of-state tuition exceed $55,000 in 2026?
- No77%
- Yes23%
- Volume total
- € 189,7
- Volume 24h
- € 189,7
KALSHIUS test scores in Reading in 2026?
- Significant decrease+3.0pt60.4%
- No significant difference-11.0pt28.7%
- Significant increase+6.2pt10.9%
- Volume total
- € 50,9 mil
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will humanity go extinct before 2030??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 96% em 15 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will humanity go extinct before 2030? é resolvido?
- Will humanity go extinct before 2030? deverá ser resolvido em 2 de janeiro de 2030.
- Como Will humanity go extinct before 2030? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: If at least one human is alive on Jan 1, 2030, then this question resolves to NO.