Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Não 93.9%
Previsores
54
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 13 horas
Desatualizado14/08/24, 15:29 UTC15/08/29, 05:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will closed-source models be more or less aligned one year from now?
Manifold MarketsWill humanity go extinct before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Humans go extinct by 2200?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRegras
I have seen predictions that closed source software will be "extinct" within five years (August 14, 2029).
- Will that happen?
- Resolves based on my personal judgment, as to whether closed source software is "extinct" within five years.
- Can resolve early.
- Since this is a subjective question, I will not bet in it.
Mercados abertos
AIKALSHIOpen Source market share on Sep 14th
- Above 67.5%99%
- Above 70%+22.0pt99%
- Above 72.5%96%
+6 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 63,6 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 63,6 mil
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027-3.0pt89%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-5.0pt86%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-8.0pt79%
+9 mais resultados
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-2.8pt68.6%
- ChatGPT-0.4pt15.7%
- Gemini+0.2pt6.9%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 9,5 mi
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 15,85%
- December 31,-3.5pt84%
- November 30,-2.0pt76%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
POLYMARKETWill any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
- 1510+45.5pt100%
- 1520-9.9pt81%
- 1530-0.1pt4%
+2 mais resultados
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude89.9%
- Gemini2.8%
- ChatGPT1.8%
+6 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 27,4 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 27,4 mil
- Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- OpenAI market share this week
- AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will closed source software go extinct within 5 years (2029)??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 94% em 15 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will closed source software go extinct within 5 years (2029)? é resolvido?
- Will closed source software go extinct within 5 years (2029)? deverá ser resolvido em 15 de agosto de 2029.
- Como Will closed source software go extinct within 5 years (2029)? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: I have seen predictions that closed source software will be "extinct" within five years (August 14, 2029).