Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 53%
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6
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 53 minutos
Atrasado6/08/26, 00:41 UTC6/08/27, 00:39 UTC
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Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will open-source models be more or less aligned one year from now?
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PolymarketRegras
Inspired by Roon's tweet: roon (@tszzl) on X
- Partner Market on open-source models: https://manifold.markets/prismatic/will-opensource-models-be-more-or-l
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve based on my judgement; feel free to ask me questions in the comments or post supporting material.
- Resolves YES if MORE aligned.
- Resolves NO if LESS aligned.
Mercados abertos
AIKALSHIOpen Source market share on Sep 14th
- Above 67.5%99%
- Above 70%+22.0pt99%
- Above 72.5%96%
+6 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 63,6 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 63,6 mil
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027-3.0pt89%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-5.0pt86%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-8.0pt79%
+9 mais resultados
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-2.8pt68.6%
- ChatGPT-0.4pt15.7%
- Gemini+0.2pt6.9%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 9,5 mi
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 15,85%
- December 31,-3.5pt84%
- November 30,-2.0pt76%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
POLYMARKETWill any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
- 1510+45.5pt100%
- 1520-9.9pt81%
- 1530-0.1pt4%
+2 mais resultados
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude89.9%
- Gemini2.8%
- ChatGPT1.8%
+6 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 27,4 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 27,4 mil
- Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
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- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
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- OpenAI market share this week
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will closed-source models be more or less aligned one year from now??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 53% em 15 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will closed-source models be more or less aligned one year from now? é resolvido?
- Will closed-source models be more or less aligned one year from now? deverá ser resolvido em 6 de agosto de 2027.
- Como Will closed-source models be more or less aligned one year from now? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Inspired by Roon's tweet: roon (@tszzl) on X