Will Germany acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?
GeopolíticaOne-OffMiddle EastChinaLatin AmericaTecnologia4a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Não 96.2%
Previsores
35
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 7 horas
Desatualizado9/02/24, 13:39 UTC1/03/31, 22:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will Iran acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?
Manifold MarketsWill Turkey acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?
Manifold MarketsWill Japan acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?
Manifold MarketsNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketUS imposes new sanctions on China by September 30?
PolymarketIran blockade lifted before Xi visits US?
PolymarketRegras
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that Germany has acquired at least one nuclear weapon before January 1st 2031.
- This device must be under the sovereign control of the German State, and they must have the ability to use it independently.
- Different years:
- @/RemNi/will-germany-acquire-nuclear-weapon (this question)
- @/RemNi/will-germany-acquire-nuclear-weapon-4f9456e9a05e
- Different countries:
Mercados abertos
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 22,2 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 470,8 mil
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 mais resultados
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 mais resultados
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volume total
- € 35,3 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 100,1 mil
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 mais resultados
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will Germany acquire nuclear weapons before 2031??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 96% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will Germany acquire nuclear weapons before 2031? é resolvido?
- Will Germany acquire nuclear weapons before 2031? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de março de 2031.
- Como Will Germany acquire nuclear weapons before 2031? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that Germany has acquired at least one nuclear weapon before January 1st 2031.