Which will happen first, Civil War 2 or World War 3?
GeopolíticaManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualThird World War 51%
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multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Variação 7d
0.0 pts
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Atualizado há 18 horas
Desatualizado9/04/24, 13:44 UTC1/01/01, 04:59 UTC
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Will the United States break out into a civil war first? Or will a the named outcome break out first?
- Resolves to whichever is considered to happen first, according to things like news outlets, Wikipedia, other bets, etc. For example, if https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-there-be-a-civil-war-in-the-un resolves to Yes first, I would most likely resolve this to Yes for Civil War 2:
- "Civil War" means any large scale military action taken by some part of the country against some other part of the country.
- This could be military vs. civilian, military vs. military, or civilian vs. civilian.
- Actual violence must be involved, not just threats. "Large scale" means that it takes place in more than one city and each side has the support of a significant fraction of the country.
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Which will happen first, Civil War 2 or World War 3??
- A Manifold Markets cota Third World War em 51% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Which will happen first, Civil War 2 or World War 3? é resolvido?
- Which will happen first, Civil War 2 or World War 3? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2101.
- Como Which will happen first, Civil War 2 or World War 3? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Will the United States break out into a civil war first? Or will a the named outcome break out first?